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BrasileiraoFri 20 Nov, 00:30 Brazil time

São Paulo vs Fluminense prediction

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

São PauloHome

1.36 : 1.10

expected goals

FluminenseAway

42%São Paulo

29%Draw

30%Fluminense

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Fluminense is São Paulo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: São Paulo to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: São Paulo 1.4, Fluminense 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives São Paulo 42%, the draw 29% and Fluminense 30%. The bookmakers agree and make São Paulo the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
São Paulo took 8 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 9 from 5. Fluminense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
São Paulo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Fluminense won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
São Paulo score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Fluminense score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of São Paulo games and 12 of Fluminense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, São Paulo won 0 and Fluminense won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fluminense 2, São Paulo 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

São Paulorecent form+1%
Fluminenserecent form+1%

São Paulo form D L D W WFluminense form W W L W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

São Paulo vs Fluminense: São Paulo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

São Paulo host Fluminense in the Brasileirao on Fri 20 Nov, 00:30 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Our prediction for São Paulo vs Fluminense is São Paulo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. São Paulo won 0, Fluminense won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 2, São Paulo 1.

Our call

We expect São Paulo to score about 1.4 goals and Fluminense about 1.1. That points to São Paulo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	São Paulo	Fluminense
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	9
Draws	5	5
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	20	31
Goals conceded	26	22
Scored per game	1.0	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.1
Home record	5W 3D 2L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	0W 2D 8L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
São Paulo to win	40%	2.47	2.30	-6.9%
A Draw	28%	3.56	3.20	-10.1%
Fluminense to win	29%	3.42	3.00	-12.3%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32	2.00	-13.7%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.69	-15.6%
São Paulo -0.5	40%	2.48	2.20	-11.4%
Fluminense +0.5	53%	1.89	1.56	-17.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.28
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
São Paulo or Draw	70%	1.42
Fluminense or Draw	58%	1.72
São Paulo to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.33
Fluminense to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.33
São Paulo clean sheet	33%	3.01
Fluminense clean sheet	26%	3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

1-010.8%

0-09.3%

2-18.7%

0-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win São Paulo vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Fluminense is São Paulo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for São Paulo vs Fluminense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect São Paulo to score 1.4 goals and Fluminense 1.1.

Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of São Paulo last 20 games and 12 of Fluminense last 20.

How are São Paulo playing?

How are Fluminense playing?

What happened when São Paulo and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 2, São Paulo 1. In the last 2 meetings São Paulo won 0 and Fluminense won 2.

What is the best bet for São Paulo vs Fluminense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in São Paulo against Fluminense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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