Predictions › Brazil › São Paulo vs Santos

BrasileiraoFri 2 Oct, 23:00 Brazil time

São Paulo vs Santos prediction

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

São PauloHome

1.50 : 1.11

expected goals

SantosAway

45%São Paulo

27%Draw

27%Santos

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Santos is São Paulo to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: São Paulo to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: São Paulo 1.5, Santos 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

São Paulo to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.841 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives São Paulo 45%, the draw 27% and Santos 27%. The bookmakers agree and make São Paulo the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
São Paulo took 9 points from their last 5 games and Santos took 13 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
São Paulo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Santos won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
São Paulo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Santos score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of São Paulo games and 12 of Santos games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, São Paulo won 0 and Santos won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Santos 1, São Paulo 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Santosrecent form+4%

São Paulo form W D L L WSantos form W L W W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

São Paulo vs Santos: São Paulo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

São Paulo host Santos in the Brasileirao on Fri 2 Oct, 23:00 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Our prediction for São Paulo vs Santos is São Paulo to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. São Paulo won 0, Santos won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Santos 1, São Paulo 1.

Our call

We expect São Paulo to score about 1.5 goals and Santos about 1.1. That points to São Paulo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is São Paulo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.84.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	São Paulo	Santos
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	9
Draws	5	5
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	22	31
Goals conceded	26	27
Scored per game	1.1	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	5W 3D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	0W 2D 8L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	15%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
São Paulo to win	42%	2.36	2.00	-15.3%
A Draw	26%	3.82	3.30	-13.6%
Santos to win	26%	3.79	3.60	-5.1%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	1.95	-13.8%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.02	1.71	-15.0%
São Paulo -0.5	44%	2.29	1.91	-16.7%
Santos +0.5	50%	2.00	1.71	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.06
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.73
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
São Paulo or Draw	73%	1.38
Santos or Draw	55%	1.83
São Paulo to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.71
Santos to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.47
São Paulo clean sheet	33%	3.05
Santos clean sheet	22%	4.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-010.2%

2-19.2%

2-08.3%

0-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win São Paulo vs Santos?

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Santos is São Paulo to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for São Paulo vs Santos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect São Paulo to score 1.5 goals and Santos 1.1.

Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Santos?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of São Paulo last 20 games and 12 of Santos last 20.

How are São Paulo playing?

How are Santos playing?

What happened when São Paulo and Santos last met?

It ended Santos 1, São Paulo 1. In the last 2 meetings São Paulo won 0 and Santos won 1.

What is the best bet for São Paulo vs Santos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in São Paulo against Santos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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