EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Brazil › São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
BrasileiraoSun 18 Oct, 00:00 Brazil time

São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

São PauloHome
1.47 : 0.88
expected goals
Vasco da GamaAway
50%São Paulo
28%Draw
22%Vasco
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama is São Paulo to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
São Paulo to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
São Paulo 1.5, Vasco da Gama 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

São Paulo to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives São Paulo 50%, the draw 28% and Vasco da Gama 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    São Paulo took 6 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 12 from 5. Vasco da Gama come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    São Paulo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    São Paulo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Vasco da Gama score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of São Paulo games and 11 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, São Paulo won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 2, São Paulo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • São Paulorecent form-1%
  • Vascorecent form+4%
  • São Paulorest between games-5%
  • Vascorest between games-5%
São Paulo form D L W D LVasco form D W W W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: São Paulo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

São Paulo host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Sun 18 Oct, 00:00 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama is São Paulo to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. São Paulo won 1, Vasco da Gama won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 2, São Paulo 1.

Our call

We expect São Paulo to score about 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama about 0.9. That points to São Paulo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is São Paulo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

São PauloVasco
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws45
Losses119
Goals scored2223
Goals conceded2829
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 1D 4L
Away record0W 1D 9L2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.45
Over 2.5 goals42%2.39
Over 3.5 goals21%4.72
Both teams to score46%2.18
São Paulo or Draw78%1.28
Vasco da Gama or Draw50%2.01
São Paulo to win and Over 2.527%3.74
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.510%9.58
São Paulo clean sheet41%2.41
Vasco da Gama clean sheet23%4.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.3%
1-113.1%
2-010.3%
0-010.2%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama is São Paulo to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect São Paulo to score 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama 0.9.

Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of São Paulo last 20 games and 11 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are São Paulo playing?

São Paulo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when São Paulo and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 2, São Paulo 1. In the last 2 meetings São Paulo won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1.

What is the best bet for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in São Paulo against Vasco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.