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Predictions › Brazil › São Paulo vs Vitória
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 00:00 Brazil time

São Paulo vs Vitória prediction

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

São PauloHome
1.97 : 0.69
expected goals
VitóriaAway
67%São Paulo
21%Draw
12%Vitória
Eagle safe pickSão Paulo or Draw
1.16

Quick answer

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vitória is São Paulo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.16.

Prediction
São Paulo to win
Chance
67%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
São Paulo 2.0, Vitória 0.7
Best bet
São Paulo or Draw at 1.16
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

São Paulo or Draw
86% chanceFair price 1.162 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

São Paulo to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives São Paulo 67%, the draw 21% and Vitória 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    São Paulo took 9 points from their last 5 games and Vitória took 4 from 5. São Paulo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    São Paulo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Vitória won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    São Paulo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Vitória score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of São Paulo games and 8 of Vitória games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, São Paulo won 0 and Vitória won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vitória 2, São Paulo 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    São Paulo or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vitóriarecent form-3%
São Paulo form W D L L WVitória form L D W L LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

São Paulo vs Vitória: São Paulo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

São Paulo host Vitória in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 00:00 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vitória is São Paulo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.16.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Vitória form

Vitória have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. São Paulo won 0, Vitória won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vitória 2, São Paulo 0.

Our call

We expect São Paulo to score about 2.0 goals and Vitória about 0.7. That points to São Paulo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.16. Our bold bet is São Paulo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

São PauloVitória
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws55
Losses109
Goals scored2220
Goals conceded2629
Scored per game1.11.0
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record5W 3D 2L6W 1D 3L
Away record0W 2D 8L0W 4D 6L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals40%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.02
Over 3.5 goals28%3.62
Both teams to score43%2.30
São Paulo or Draw88%1.13
Vitória or Draw33%3.03
São Paulo to win and Over 2.540%2.49
Vitória to win and Over 2.56%17.76
São Paulo clean sheet50%1.99
Vitória clean sheet14%7.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.6%
1-013.2%
1-110.1%
2-19.4%
3-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win São Paulo vs Vitória?

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vitória is São Paulo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.16.

What is the score prediction for São Paulo vs Vitória?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect São Paulo to score 2.0 goals and Vitória 0.7.

Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Vitória?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of São Paulo last 20 games and 8 of Vitória last 20.

How are São Paulo playing?

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Vitória playing?

Vitória have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when São Paulo and Vitória last met?

It ended Vitória 2, São Paulo 0. In the last 2 meetings São Paulo won 0 and Vitória won 2.

What is the best bet for São Paulo vs Vitória?

São Paulo or Draw at 1.16, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in São Paulo against Vitória. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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