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Predictions › Argentina › Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate
Argentina Liga ProfesionalWed 14 Oct, 22:00 Argentina time

Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate prediction

Eva Perón

Sarmiento (Junín)Home
1.14 : 1.06
expected goals
River PlateAway
37%Sarmiento (J)
31%Draw
33%River Plate
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate is Sarmiento (Junín) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Sarmiento (Junín) to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sarmiento (Junín) 1.1, River Plate 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sarmiento (Junín) 37%, the draw 31% and River Plate 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sarmiento (Junín) took 7 points from their last 5 games and River Plate took 10 from 5. River Plate come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sarmiento (Junín) won 6 of their last 11 games at home. River Plate won 4 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sarmiento (Junín) score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. River Plate score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) games and 9 of River Plate games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sarmiento (Junín) won 1 and River Plate won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended River Plate 2, Sarmiento (Junín) 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • River Platerecent form+3%
Sarmiento (J) form L D W L WRiver Plate form L W W W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate: Sarmiento (Junín) shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sarmiento (Junín) host River Plate in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Wed 14 Oct, 22:00 at Eva Perón. Our prediction for Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate is Sarmiento (Junín) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Sarmiento (Junín) form

Sarmiento (Junín) have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

River Plate form

River Plate have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sarmiento (Junín) won 1, River Plate won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished River Plate 2, Sarmiento (Junín) 0.

Our call

We expect Sarmiento (Junín) to score about 1.1 goals and River Plate about 1.1. That points to Sarmiento (Junín) to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.05.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sarmiento (J)River Plate
Games played2020
Wins910
Draws22
Losses98
Goals scored2630
Goals conceded3020
Scored per game1.31.5
Conceded per game1.51.0
Home record6W 2D 3L6W 2D 6L
Away record3W 0D 6L4W 0D 2L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.53
Over 2.5 goals38%2.64
Over 3.5 goals18%5.49
Both teams to score45%2.20
Sarmiento (Junín) or Draw67%1.49
River Plate or Draw63%1.58
Sarmiento (Junín) to win and Over 2.518%5.64
River Plate to win and Over 2.516%6.43
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet35%2.90
River Plate clean sheet32%3.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%
0-011.8%
1-011.8%
0-110.9%
2-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate?

Our prediction for Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate is Sarmiento (Junín) to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Sarmiento (Junín) to score 1.1 goals and River Plate 1.1.

Will both teams score in Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) last 20 games and 8 of River Plate last 20.

How are Sarmiento (Junín) playing?

Sarmiento (Junín) have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are River Plate playing?

River Plate have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Sarmiento (Junín) and River Plate last met?

It ended River Plate 2, Sarmiento (Junín) 0. In the last 2 meetings Sarmiento (Junín) won 1 and River Plate won 1.

What is the best bet for Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sarmiento (J) against River Plate. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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