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Predictions › Norway › Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund
EliteserienSun 25 Oct, 16:00 Norway time

Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund prediction

Sarpsborg Stadion

Sarpsborg FKHome
1.54 : 1.27
expected goals
AalesundAway
43%Sarpsborg FK
26%Draw
31%Aalesund
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Sarpsborg FK to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sarpsborg FK 1.5, Aalesund 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sarpsborg FK 43%, the draw 26% and Aalesund 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sarpsborg FK took 6 points from their last 5 games and Aalesund took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sarpsborg FK won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Aalesund won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sarpsborg FK score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. Aalesund score 1.6 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Sarpsborg FK games and 13 of Aalesund games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Sarpsborg FK won 1 and Aalesund won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Aalesund 2, Sarpsborg FK 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sarpsborg FKrecent form-1%
Sarpsborg FK form D L D D DAalesund form D W L W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund: Sarpsborg FK shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sarpsborg FK host Aalesund in the Eliteserien on Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 at Sarpsborg Stadion. Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Sarpsborg FK form

Sarpsborg FK have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Aalesund form

Aalesund have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sarpsborg FK won 1, Aalesund won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Aalesund 2, Sarpsborg FK 4.

Our call

We expect Sarpsborg FK to score about 1.5 goals and Aalesund about 1.3. That points to Sarpsborg FK to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5 at 3.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sarpsborg FKAalesund
Games played2020
Wins64
Draws68
Losses88
Goals scored2531
Goals conceded3044
Scored per game1.31.6
Conceded per game1.52.2
Home record4W 2D 3L2W 6D 3L
Away record2W 4D 5L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets20%10%
Both teams scored65%80%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.22
Both teams to score57%1.75
Sarpsborg FK or Draw69%1.45
Aalesund or Draw57%1.75
Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.527%3.69
Aalesund to win and Over 2.519%5.25
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet28%3.58
Aalesund clean sheet22%4.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-19.0%
1-08.5%
1-27.5%
2-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund?

Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Sarpsborg FK to score 1.5 goals and Aalesund 1.3.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sarpsborg FK last 20 games and 16 of Aalesund last 20.

How are Sarpsborg FK playing?

Sarpsborg FK have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Aalesund playing?

Aalesund have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Sarpsborg FK and Aalesund last met?

It ended Aalesund 2, Sarpsborg FK 4. In the last 1 meeting Sarpsborg FK won 1 and Aalesund won 0.

What is the best bet for Sarpsborg FK vs Aalesund?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sarpsborg FK against Aalesund. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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