Predictions › Norway › Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom

EliteserienSun 22 Nov, 18:15 Norway time

Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom prediction

Sarpsborg Stadion

Sarpsborg FKHome

1.51 : 1.53

expected goals

LillestromAway

37%Sarpsborg FK

25%Draw

38%Lillestrom

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Lillestrom to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sarpsborg FK 1.5, Lillestrom 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lillestrom to win

37% chancePrice 2.75+0.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sarpsborg FK 37%, the draw 25% and Lillestrom 38%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Sarpsborg FK the favourite at 2.15, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Sarpsborg FK took 6 points from their last 5 games and Lillestrom took 9 from 5. Lillestrom come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sarpsborg FK won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Lillestrom won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sarpsborg FK score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.8. Lillestrom score 1.2 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Sarpsborg FK games and 11 of Lillestrom games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Sarpsborg FK won 0 and Lillestrom won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lillestrom 4, Sarpsborg FK 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sarpsborg FKrecent form-1%
Lillestromrecent form+1%

Sarpsborg FK form L L W L WLillestrom form W L W W LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom: Lillestrom shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sarpsborg FK host Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on Sun 22 Nov, 18:15 at Sarpsborg Stadion. Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Sarpsborg FK form

Sarpsborg FK have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sarpsborg FK won 0, Lillestrom won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lillestrom 4, Sarpsborg FK 0.

Our call

We expect Sarpsborg FK to score about 1.5 goals and Lillestrom about 1.5. That points to Lillestrom to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Lillestrom to win at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sarpsborg FK	Lillestrom
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	5	3
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	27	24
Goals conceded	36	36
Scored per game	1.4	1.2
Conceded per game	1.8	1.8
Home record	5W 1D 4L	4W 1D 6L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sarpsborg FK to win	36%	2.77	2.15	-22.3%
A Draw	25%	4.02	3.90	-3.1%
Lillestrom to win	37%	2.73	2.75	+0.6%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.37	1.91	-19.4%
Under 3.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.74	-11.2%
Sarpsborg FK -0.5	41%	2.46	2.05	-16.8%
Lillestrom +0.5	53%	1.90	1.63	-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.76
Both teams to score	62%	1.62
Sarpsborg FK or Draw	63%	1.60
Lillestrom or Draw	63%	1.59
Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.00
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.95
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet	22%	4.60
Lillestrom clean sheet	22%	4.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%

1-28.4%

2-18.4%

0-16.6%

1-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom?

Our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Sarpsborg FK to score 1.5 goals and Lillestrom 1.5.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sarpsborg FK last 20 games and 10 of Lillestrom last 20.

How are Sarpsborg FK playing?

How are Lillestrom playing?

What happened when Sarpsborg FK and Lillestrom last met?

It ended Lillestrom 4, Sarpsborg FK 0. In the last 1 meeting Sarpsborg FK won 0 and Lillestrom won 1.

What is the best bet for Sarpsborg FK vs Lillestrom?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sarpsborg FK against Lillestrom. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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