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Predictions › Italy › Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Serie AMon 2 Nov, 17:30 Italy time

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction

Mapei Stadium

SassuoloHome
1.89 : 1.43
expected goals
FiorentinaAway
48%Sassuolo
24%Draw
29%Fiorentina
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is Sassuolo to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Sassuolo to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sassuolo 1.9, Fiorentina 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sassuolo 48%, the draw 24% and Fiorentina 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sassuolo took 5 points from their last 5 games and Fiorentina took 4 from 5. Sassuolo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sassuolo won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Fiorentina won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sassuolo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Fiorentina score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sassuolo games and 11 of Fiorentina games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sassuolo won 1 and Fiorentina won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fiorentina 0, Sassuolo 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sassuolorecent form-1%
  • Fiorentinarecent form+1%
Sassuolo form L D L W DFiorentina form D L D W WHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Sassuolo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sassuolo host Fiorentina in the Serie A on Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 at Mapei Stadium. Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is Sassuolo to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Fiorentina form

Fiorentina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sassuolo won 1, Fiorentina won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fiorentina 0, Sassuolo 0.

Our call

We expect Sassuolo to score about 1.9 goals and Fiorentina about 1.4. That points to Sassuolo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.90.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SassuoloFiorentina
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws46
Losses97
Goals scored2923
Goals conceded2930
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record7W 1D 2L2W 5D 3L
Away record0W 3D 7L5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored75%55%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.55
Over 3.5 goals42%2.36
Both teams to score65%1.53
Sassuolo or Draw71%1.40
Fiorentina or Draw52%1.91
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.535%2.85
Fiorentina to win and Over 2.520%4.89
Sassuolo clean sheet24%4.19
Fiorentina clean sheet15%6.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.4%
2-19.2%
1-27.0%
2-26.6%
2-06.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Serie A

Real Madrid Loanee Breaks Lionel Messi Record in Italy

On loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono became the youngest Argentine to score a hat trick in Europe's top leagues during Fiorentina's win.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is Sassuolo to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Sassuolo to score 1.9 goals and Fiorentina 1.4.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Sassuolo last 20 games and 11 of Fiorentina last 20.

How are Sassuolo playing?

Sassuolo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Fiorentina playing?

Fiorentina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Sassuolo and Fiorentina last met?

It ended Fiorentina 0, Sassuolo 0. In the last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 1 and Fiorentina won 0.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sassuolo against Fiorentina. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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