Predictions › Italy › Sassuolo vs Genoa

Serie ASun 22 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Sassuolo vs Genoa prediction

Mapei Stadium

SassuoloHome

1.36 : 1.34

expected goals

GenoaAway

37%Sassuolo

27%Draw

36%Genoa

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Genoa is Sassuolo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Sassuolo to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.4, Genoa 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sassuolo 37%, the draw 27% and Genoa 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Sassuolo the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Sassuolo took 0 points from their last 5 games and Genoa took 9 from 5. Genoa come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sassuolo won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Genoa won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sassuolo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.0. Genoa score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sassuolo games and 8 of Genoa games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sassuolo won 0 and Genoa won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Genoa 2, Sassuolo 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sassuolorecent form-7%
Genoarecent form+1%

Sassuolo form L L L L LGenoa form L W W W LHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sassuolo vs Genoa: Sassuolo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sassuolo host Genoa in the Serie A on Sun 22 Nov, 14:00 at Mapei Stadium. Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Genoa is Sassuolo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Genoa form

Genoa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sassuolo won 0, Genoa won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Genoa 2, Sassuolo 1.

Our call

We expect Sassuolo to score about 1.4 goals and Genoa about 1.3. That points to Sassuolo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.69.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sassuolo	Genoa
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	4	3
Losses	11	11
Goals scored	27	16
Goals conceded	40	27
Scored per game	1.4	0.8
Conceded per game	2.0	1.4
Home record	5W 1D 3L	4W 1D 6L
Away record	0W 3D 8L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	75%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sassuolo to win	36%	2.78	2.40	-13.8%
A Draw	27%	3.73	3.20	-14.2%
Genoa to win	35%	2.85	2.65	-7.1%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.15	1.87	-13.1%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.83	-14.3%
Sassuolo -0.5	38%	2.67	2.30	-13.7%
Genoa +0.5	57%	1.76	1.49	-15.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.98
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.51
Both teams to score	55%	1.80
Sassuolo or Draw	64%	1.56
Genoa or Draw	63%	1.58
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.52
Genoa to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.65
Sassuolo clean sheet	26%	3.81
Genoa clean sheet	26%	3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-08.4%

2-18.3%

0-18.3%

1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sassuolo vs Genoa?

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Genoa is Sassuolo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Sassuolo vs Genoa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Sassuolo to score 1.4 goals and Genoa 1.3.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Sassuolo last 20 games and 9 of Genoa last 20.

How are Sassuolo playing?

How are Genoa playing?

What happened when Sassuolo and Genoa last met?

It ended Genoa 2, Sassuolo 1. In the last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 0 and Genoa won 2.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Genoa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sassuolo against Genoa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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