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Predictions › Italy › Sassuolo vs Lazio
Serie ATue 27 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction

Mapei Stadium

SassuoloHome
0.88 : 1.26
expected goals
LazioAway
25%Sassuolo
31%Draw
44%Lazio
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Lazio to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Sassuolo 0.9, Lazio 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-1
14% chanceFair price 7.121 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sassuolo 25%, the draw 31% and Lazio 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sassuolo took 5 points from their last 5 games and Lazio took 13 from 5. Lazio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sassuolo won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Lazio won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sassuolo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Lazio score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sassuolo games and 8 of Lazio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sassuolo won 1 and Lazio won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lazio 2, Sassuolo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sassuolorecent form-1%
  • Laziorecent form+4%
  • Sassuolorest between games-5%
Sassuolo form L D L W DLazio form D W D W WHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sassuolo vs Lazio: Lazio shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sassuolo host Lazio in the Serie A on Tue 27 Oct, 17:30 at Mapei Stadium. Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Lazio form

Lazio have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sassuolo won 1, Lazio won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lazio 2, Sassuolo 1.

Our call

We expect Sassuolo to score about 0.9 goals and Lazio about 1.3. That points to Lazio to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-1 at 7.12.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SassuoloLazio
Games played2020
Wins711
Draws44
Losses95
Goals scored2926
Goals conceded2921
Scored per game1.41.3
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record7W 1D 2L5W 3D 2L
Away record0W 3D 7L6W 1D 3L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored75%40%
Over 2.5 goals70%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.57
Over 2.5 goals36%2.78
Over 3.5 goals17%5.94
Both teams to score43%2.35
Sassuolo or Draw56%1.79
Lazio or Draw75%1.34
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.511%9.06
Lazio to win and Over 2.521%4.79
Sassuolo clean sheet28%3.51
Lazio clean sheet41%2.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.1%
1-113.8%
0-012.6%
1-09.6%
0-29.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Sassuolo vs Lazio?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Sassuolo to score 0.9 goals and Lazio 1.3.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Sassuolo last 20 games and 8 of Lazio last 20.

How are Sassuolo playing?

Sassuolo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Lazio playing?

Lazio have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Sassuolo and Lazio last met?

It ended Lazio 2, Sassuolo 1. In the last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 1 and Lazio won 1.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Lazio?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sassuolo against Lazio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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