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Predictions › Germany › SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04
BundesligaSun 11 Oct, 15:30 Germany time

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction

Europa-Park Stadion

SC FreiburgHome
2.03 : 1.08
expected goals
Schalke 04Away
59%Freiburg
22%Draw
19%Schalke
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 is SC Freiburg to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
SC Freiburg to win
Chance
59%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
SC Freiburg 2.0, Schalke 04 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

SC Freiburg to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SC Freiburg 59%, the draw 22% and Schalke 04 19%. The bookmakers agree and make SC Freiburg the favourite at 1.59.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SC Freiburg took 10 points from their last 5 games and Schalke 04 took 8 from 5. SC Freiburg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SC Freiburg won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Schalke 04 won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SC Freiburg score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Schalke 04 score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of SC Freiburg games and 11 of Schalke 04 games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Freiburgrecent form+6%
  • Schalkerecent form+1%
Freiburg form D W W W WSchalke form D W D L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04: SC Freiburg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SC Freiburg host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 at Europa-Park Stadion. Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 is SC Freiburg to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

SC Freiburg form

SC Freiburg have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Schalke 04 form

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect SC Freiburg to score about 2.0 goals and Schalke 04 about 1.1. That points to SC Freiburg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is SC Freiburg to win and Over 2.5 at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FreiburgSchalke
Games played2020
Wins1110
Draws27
Losses73
Goals scored4131
Goals conceded2725
Scored per game2.01.6
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record7W 1D 3L6W 5D 0L
Away record4W 1D 4L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
SC Freiburg to win55%1.811.59-12.1%
A Draw22%4.573.75-17.9%
Schalke 04 to win19%5.324.80-9.8%
Over 2.5 goals56%1.791.57-12.2%
Under 2.5 goals38%2.612.25-13.9%
SC Freiburg -0.555%1.821.56-14.6%
Schalke 04 +0.539%2.552.15-15.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Over 3.5 goals38%2.65
Both teams to score58%1.73
SC Freiburg or Draw81%1.23
Schalke 04 or Draw41%2.42
SC Freiburg to win and Over 2.541%2.44
Schalke 04 to win and Over 2.512%8.23
SC Freiburg clean sheet34%2.94
Schalke 04 clean sheet13%7.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.4%
2-19.9%
2-09.2%
1-08.5%
3-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 is SC Freiburg to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect SC Freiburg to score 2.0 goals and Schalke 04 1.1.

Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of SC Freiburg last 20 games and 11 of Schalke 04 last 20.

How are SC Freiburg playing?

SC Freiburg have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Schalke 04 playing?

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Freiburg against Schalke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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