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Predictions › Germany › SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Home Deluxe Arena

SC Paderborn 07Home
1.21 : 2.09
expected goals
VfB StuttgartAway
21%Paderborn
22%Draw
57%Stuttgart
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
SC Paderborn 07 1.2, VfB Stuttgart 2.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SC Paderborn 07 21%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 57%. The bookmakers agree and make VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 1.56.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SC Paderborn 07 took 7 points from their last 5 games and VfB Stuttgart took 6 from 5. SC Paderborn 07 come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SC Paderborn 07 won 6 of their last 10 games at home. VfB Stuttgart won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SC Paderborn 07 score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.5. VfB Stuttgart score 2.0 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of SC Paderborn 07 games and 14 of VfB Stuttgart games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Stuttgartrecent form-1%
Paderborn form W L L D WStuttgart form L L W W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SC Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 13:30 at Home Deluxe Arena. Our prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

SC Paderborn 07 form

SC Paderborn 07 have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect SC Paderborn 07 to score about 1.2 goals and VfB Stuttgart about 2.1. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5 at 2.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PaderbornStuttgart
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws65
Losses58
Goals scored3440
Goals conceded3035
Scored per game1.72.0
Conceded per game1.51.8
Home record6W 2D 2L6W 1D 4L
Away record3W 4D 3L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
SC Paderborn 07 to win21%4.854.50-7.3%
A Draw22%4.644.20-9.6%
VfB Stuttgart to win54%1.861.56-16.4%
Over 3.5 goals44%2.301.91-16.9%
Under 3.5 goals50%1.991.80-9.6%
SC Paderborn 07 +1.559%1.701.51-11.0%
VfB Stuttgart -1.536%2.762.25-18.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.56
Over 3.5 goals42%2.38
Both teams to score62%1.61
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw43%2.33
VfB Stuttgart or Draw79%1.27
SC Paderborn 07 to win and Over 2.514%6.96
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.542%2.39
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet12%8.11
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet30%3.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.9%
1-29.7%
0-28.1%
0-17.1%
1-36.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?

Our prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect SC Paderborn 07 to score 1.2 goals and VfB Stuttgart 2.1.

Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of SC Paderborn 07 last 20 games and 13 of VfB Stuttgart last 20.

How are SC Paderborn 07 playing?

SC Paderborn 07 have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

VfB Stuttgart have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Paderborn against Stuttgart. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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