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Predictions › Germany › Schalke 04 vs Mainz
BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

Schalke 04 vs Mainz prediction

Veltins Arena

Schalke 04Home
1.44 : 1.63
expected goals
MainzAway
33%Schalke
25%Draw
42%Mainz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Schalke 04 vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Mainz to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Schalke 04 1.4, Mainz 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mainz to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Schalke 04 33%, the draw 25% and Mainz 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Mainz the favourite at 2.25.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Schalke 04 took 8 points from their last 5 games and Mainz took 10 from 5. Mainz come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Schalke 04 won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Mainz won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Schalke 04 score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Mainz score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Schalke 04 games and 10 of Mainz games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Schalkerecent form+1%
  • Mainzrecent form+3%
Schalke form D W D L WMainz form W L W D WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Schalke 04 vs Mainz: Mainz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Schalke 04 host Mainz in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 at Veltins Arena. Our prediction for Schalke 04 vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Schalke 04 form

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Mainz form

Mainz have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Schalke 04 to score about 1.4 goals and Mainz about 1.6. That points to Mainz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Mainz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SchalkeMainz
Games played2020
Wins109
Draws76
Losses35
Goals scored3133
Goals conceded2526
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record6W 5D 0L3W 3D 4L
Away record4W 2D 3L6W 3D 1L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Schalke 04 to win32%3.092.75-11.0%
A Draw25%4.033.40-15.5%
Mainz to win39%2.582.25-12.7%
Over 2.5 goals56%1.801.56-13.5%
Under 2.5 goals38%2.652.30-13.1%
Schalke 04 +0.554%1.841.56-15.6%
Mainz -0.539%2.562.15-16.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals59%1.69
Over 3.5 goals37%2.71
Both teams to score62%1.61
Schalke 04 or Draw58%1.71
Mainz or Draw67%1.50
Schalke 04 to win and Over 2.522%4.46
Mainz to win and Over 2.529%3.50
Schalke 04 clean sheet20%5.12
Mainz clean sheet24%4.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
1-28.9%
2-17.8%
0-16.9%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Schalke 04 vs Mainz?

Our prediction for Schalke 04 vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Schalke 04 vs Mainz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Schalke 04 to score 1.4 goals and Mainz 1.6.

Will both teams score in Schalke 04 vs Mainz?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Schalke 04 last 20 games and 11 of Mainz last 20.

How are Schalke 04 playing?

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Mainz playing?

Mainz have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Schalke 04 vs Mainz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Schalke against Mainz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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