Predictions › Spain › Sevilla vs Alavés

LaLigaFri 6 Nov, 20:00 Spain time

Sevilla vs Alavés prediction

Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

SevillaHome

1.35 : 1.02

expected goals

AlavésAway

44%Sevilla

29%Draw

27%Alavés

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés is Sevilla to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Sevilla to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.4, Alavés 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sevilla 44%, the draw 29% and Alavés 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Sevilla the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Sevilla took 7 points from their last 5 games and Alavés took 2 from 5. Sevilla come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sevilla won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Alavés won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sevilla score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Alavés score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Sevilla games and 12 of Alavés games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sevilla won 1 and Alavés won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Sevilla 1, Alavés 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sevillarecent form-1%
Alavésrecent form-4%
Sevillarest between games-5%

Sevilla form D L D L WAlavés form D L L D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sevilla vs Alavés: Sevilla shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sevilla host Alavés in the LaLiga on Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium. Our prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés is Sevilla to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Sevilla form

Sevilla have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sevilla won 1, Alavés won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Sevilla 1, Alavés 1.

Our call

We expect Sevilla to score about 1.4 goals and Alavés about 1.0. That points to Sevilla to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sevilla	Alavés
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	2	6
Losses	9	7
Goals scored	25	32
Goals conceded	29	29
Scored per game	1.3	1.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	6W 0D 4L	5W 2D 4L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sevilla to win	43%	2.33	2.10	-10.0%
A Draw	28%	3.59	3.20	-10.8%
Alavés to win	27%	3.76	3.60	-4.3%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.36	2.15	-8.9%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.92	1.63	-15.4%
Sevilla -0.5	44%	2.26	1.95	-13.7%
Alavés +0.5	50%	1.99	1.69	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.44
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.36
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.62
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Sevilla or Draw	73%	1.38
Alavés or Draw	56%	1.77
Sevilla to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.29
Alavés to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.19
Sevilla clean sheet	36%	2.78
Alavés clean sheet	26%	3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

1-011.8%

0-010.1%

0-18.7%

2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Sevilla files official LaLiga complaint after controversial Real Madrid loss

Sevilla sent an official complaint to LaLiga following a controversial 4-1 loss against Real Madrid.

21 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sevilla vs Alavés?

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés is Sevilla to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Sevilla vs Alavés?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Sevilla to score 1.4 goals and Alavés 1.0.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alavés?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Sevilla last 20 games and 14 of Alavés last 20.

How are Sevilla playing?

How are Alavés playing?

What happened when Sevilla and Alavés last met?

It ended Sevilla 1, Alavés 1. In the last 2 meetings Sevilla won 1 and Alavés won 0.

What is the best bet for Sevilla vs Alavés?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sevilla against Alavés. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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