Predictions › Spain › Sevilla vs Osasuna

LaLigaMon 26 Oct, 20:00 Spain time

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction

Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

SevillaHome

1.57 : 1.03

expected goals

OsasunaAway

49%Sevilla

27%Draw

24%Osasuna

Eagle safe pickSevilla or Draw

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Osasuna is Sevilla to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sevilla or Draw at 1.32.

Prediction: Sevilla to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.6, Osasuna 1.0
Best bet: Sevilla or Draw at 1.32
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sevilla or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sevilla to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sevilla 49%, the draw 27% and Osasuna 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Sevilla the favourite at 1.95.
2
Recent form
Sevilla took 8 points from their last 5 games and Osasuna took 1 from 5. Sevilla come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sevilla won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Osasuna won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sevilla score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Osasuna score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Sevilla games and 12 of Osasuna games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sevilla won 1 and Osasuna won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Osasuna 2, Sevilla 1.
6
The safest bet
Sevilla or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sevillarecent form+1%
Osasunarecent form-4%

Sevilla form D L W W DOsasuna form D D L L LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sevilla vs Osasuna: Sevilla are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sevilla host Osasuna in the LaLiga on Mon 26 Oct, 20:00 at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium. Our prediction for Sevilla vs Osasuna is Sevilla to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sevilla or Draw at 1.32.

Sevilla form

Sevilla have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Osasuna form

Osasuna have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sevilla won 1, Osasuna won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Osasuna 2, Sevilla 1.

Our call

We expect Sevilla to score about 1.6 goals and Osasuna about 1.0. That points to Sevilla to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sevilla or Draw at 1.32. Our bold bet is Sevilla to win and Over 2.5 at 3.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sevilla	Osasuna
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	4
Draws	3	5
Losses	9	11
Goals scored	25	22
Goals conceded	31	38
Scored per game	1.3	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	1.9
Home record	5W 1D 4L	3W 4D 4L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	1W 1D 7L
Clean sheets	15%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sevilla to win	48%	2.09	1.95	-6.7%
A Draw	26%	3.91	3.35	-14.2%
Osasuna to win	23%	4.30	3.85	-10.5%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.21	2.10	-4.9%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.67	-13.8%
Sevilla -0.5	48%	2.10	1.87	-11.0%
Osasuna +0.5	49%	2.02	1.77	-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.80
Both teams to score	52%	1.94
Sevilla or Draw	76%	1.32
Osasuna or Draw	51%	1.96
Sevilla to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.46
Osasuna to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.49
Sevilla clean sheet	36%	2.81
Osasuna clean sheet	21%	4.78

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

1-010.9%

2-19.4%

2-09.1%

0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Osasuna is Sevilla to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sevilla or Draw at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Sevilla vs Osasuna?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Sevilla to score 1.6 goals and Osasuna 1.0.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Sevilla last 20 games and 13 of Osasuna last 20.

How are Sevilla playing?

How are Osasuna playing?

What happened when Sevilla and Osasuna last met?

It ended Osasuna 2, Sevilla 1. In the last 2 meetings Sevilla won 1 and Osasuna won 1.

What is the best bet for Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Sevilla or Draw at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sevilla against Osasuna. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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