Predictions › Champions League › Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens

Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens prediction

Stamford Bridge

Shakhtar DonetskHome

1.27 : 1.44

expected goals

AEK AthensAway

33%Shakhtar

27%Draw

40%AEK Athens

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: AEK Athens to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.3, AEK Athens 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk 33%, the draw 27% and AEK Athens 40%. The bookmakers agree and make AEK Athens the favourite at 2.50.
2
Recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk took 5 points from their last 5 games and AEK Athens took 11 from 5. AEK Athens come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Shakhtar Donetsk won 2 of their last 6 games at home. AEK Athens won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.2. AEK Athens score 1.9 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Shakhtar Donetsk games and 11 of AEK Athens games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Shakhtarrecent form-1%
AEK Athensrecent form+4%

Shakhtar form D L L D WAEK Athens form W D W W DHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: AEK Athens shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens in the Champions League on Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 at Stamford Bridge. Our prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Shakhtar Donetsk form

Shakhtar Donetsk have 6 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 13 games, with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, W, newest first.

AEK Athens form

AEK Athens have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Shakhtar Donetsk to score about 1.3 goals and AEK Athens about 1.4. That points to AEK Athens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Shakhtar	AEK Athens
Games played	13	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	3	7
Losses	4	2
Goals scored	22	37
Goals conceded	16	16
Scored per game	1.7	1.9
Conceded per game	1.2	0.8
Home record	2W 1D 3L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 1L	3W 6D 1L
Clean sheets	31%	45%
Both teams scored	69%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	69%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Shakhtar Donetsk to win	32%	3.17	2.65	-16.4%
A Draw	26%	3.80	3.45	-9.1%
AEK Athens to win	38%	2.64	2.50	-5.3%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.80	-11.9%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	1.95	-10.8%
Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5	59%	1.70	1.48	-13.2%
AEK Athens -0.5	37%	2.71	2.35	-13.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.48
Both teams to score	56%	1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw	60%	1.67
AEK Athens or Draw	67%	1.48
Shakhtar Donetsk to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.13
AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.08
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	24%	4.21
AEK Athens clean sheet	28%	3.57

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

0-18.8%

1-28.7%

1-07.7%

2-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

Our prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Shakhtar Donetsk to score 1.3 goals and AEK Athens 1.4.

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Shakhtar Donetsk last 13 games and 9 of AEK Athens last 20.

How are Shakhtar Donetsk playing?

How are AEK Athens playing?

What is the best bet for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Shakhtar against AEK Athens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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