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Predictions › United Kingdom › Sheffield United vs Derby County
ChampionshipSat 24 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Sheffield United vs Derby County prediction

Bramall Lane

Sheffield UnitedHome
1.59 : 1.44
expected goals
Derby CountyAway
41%Sheffield Utd
25%Draw
34%Derby
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sheffield United vs Derby County is Sheffield United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Sheffield United to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sheffield United 1.6, Derby County 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sheffield United to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sheffield United 41%, the draw 25% and Derby County 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sheffield United took 6 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 2 from 5. Sheffield United come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sheffield United won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Derby County won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sheffield United score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.4. Derby County score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sheffield United games and 11 of Derby County games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sheffield United won 1 and Derby County won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Derby County 1, Sheffield United 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sheffield Utdrecent form-3%
  • Derbyrecent form-4%
Sheffield Utd form D L L L WDerby form D D L L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sheffield United vs Derby County: Sheffield United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sheffield United host Derby County in the Championship on Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 at Bramall Lane. Our prediction for Sheffield United vs Derby County is Sheffield United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Sheffield United form

Sheffield United have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sheffield United won 1, Derby County won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Derby County 1, Sheffield United 2.

Our call

We expect Sheffield United to score about 1.6 goals and Derby County about 1.4. That points to Sheffield United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Sheffield United to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sheffield UtdDerby
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws43
Losses811
Goals scored3022
Goals conceded2729
Scored per game1.51.1
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record3W 2D 5L3W 2D 5L
Away record5W 2D 3L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%2/9
Over 2.5 goals58%8/11
Over 3.5 goals36%9/5
Both teams to score61%8/13
Sheffield United or Draw66%1/2
Derby County or Draw59%4/6
Sheffield United to win and Over 2.528%13/5
Derby County to win and Over 2.523%10/3
Sheffield United clean sheet24%10/3
Derby County clean sheet20%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-18.8%
1-28.0%
1-07.0%
2-26.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Sheffield United vs Derby County is Sheffield United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Sheffield United vs Derby County?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Sheffield United to score 1.6 goals and Derby County 1.4.

Will both teams score in Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Sheffield United last 20 games and 11 of Derby County last 20.

How are Sheffield United playing?

Sheffield United have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Sheffield United and Derby County last met?

It ended Derby County 1, Sheffield United 2. In the last 2 meetings Sheffield United won 1 and Derby County won 1.

What is the best bet for Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sheffield Utd against Derby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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