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Predictions › Japan › Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
J1 LeagueWed 21 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia prediction

IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Shimizu S-PulseHome
0.73 : 1.49
expected goals
Machida ZelviaAway
18%Shimizu
28%Draw
55%Machida Zelvia
Eagle safe pickMachida Zelvia or Draw
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction
Machida Zelvia to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Shimizu S-Pulse 0.7, Machida Zelvia 1.5
Best bet
Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Machida Zelvia or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Shimizu S-Pulse 18%, the draw 28% and Machida Zelvia 55%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Shimizu S-Pulse took 10 points from their last 5 games and Machida Zelvia took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Shimizu S-Pulse score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Machida Zelvia score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Shimizu S-Pulse games and 9 of Machida Zelvia games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Machida Zelvia or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Shimizurecent form+1%
  • Machida Zelviarecent form+1%
  • Shimizurest between games-5%
  • Machida Zelviarest between games-5%
Shimizu form D W W L DMachida Zelvia form D L W D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia: Machida Zelvia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Shimizu S-Pulse host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League on Wed 21 Oct, 10:00 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25.

Shimizu S-Pulse form

Shimizu S-Pulse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score about 0.7 goals and Machida Zelvia about 1.5. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.90.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ShimizuMachida Zelvia
Games played2020
Wins611
Draws58
Losses91
Goals scored1936
Goals conceded2517
Scored per game0.91.8
Conceded per game1.30.8
Home record2W 4D 5L6W 2D 1L
Away record4W 1D 4L5W 6D 0L
Clean sheets15%40%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.52
Over 2.5 goals38%2.60
Over 3.5 goals19%5.38
Both teams to score41%2.44
Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw45%2.20
Machida Zelvia or Draw82%1.22
Shimizu S-Pulse to win and Over 2.58%13.22
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.527%3.68
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet23%4.44
Machida Zelvia clean sheet48%2.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-115.4%
1-112.5%
0-212.0%
0-011.5%
1-28.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score 0.7 goals and Machida Zelvia 1.5.

Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Shimizu S-Pulse last 20 games and 12 of Machida Zelvia last 20.

How are Shimizu S-Pulse playing?

Shimizu S-Pulse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

Machida Zelvia or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Shimizu against Machida Zelvia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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