Predictions › Japan › Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969

J1 LeagueSat 7 Nov, 04:00 Japan time

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 prediction

IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Shimizu S-PulseHome

1.10 : 1.04

expected goals

Tokyo Verdy 1969Away

36%Shimizu

31%Draw

33%Tokyo Verdy

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is Shimizu S-Pulse to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 1.1, Tokyo Verdy 1969 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Shimizu S-Pulse 36%, the draw 31% and Tokyo Verdy 1969 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Shimizu S-Pulse took 7 points from their last 5 games and Tokyo Verdy 1969 took 4 from 5. Shimizu S-Pulse come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 12 games at home. Tokyo Verdy 1969 won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Shimizu S-Pulse score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Tokyo Verdy 1969 score 0.8 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Shimizu S-Pulse games and 8 of Tokyo Verdy 1969 games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Shimizu S-Pulse won 1 and Tokyo Verdy 1969 won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Tokyo Verdy 1969 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Shimizurecent form+1%
Tokyo Verdyrecent form-4%

Shimizu form D L D W WTokyo Verdy form D D L L LHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969: Shimizu S-Pulse shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Shimizu S-Pulse host Tokyo Verdy 1969 in the J1 League on Sat 7 Nov, 04:00 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is Shimizu S-Pulse to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Shimizu S-Pulse form

Shimizu S-Pulse have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Tokyo Verdy 1969 form

Tokyo Verdy 1969 have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Shimizu S-Pulse won 1, Tokyo Verdy 1969 won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Tokyo Verdy 1969 0.

Our call

We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score about 1.1 goals and Tokyo Verdy 1969 about 1.0. That points to Shimizu S-Pulse to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Shimizu	Tokyo Verdy
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	3
Draws	5	7
Losses	10	10
Goals scored	17	15
Goals conceded	33	35
Scored per game	0.8	0.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.8
Home record	2W 5D 5L	2W 2D 7L
Away record	3W 0D 5L	1W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	10%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	64%	1.56
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.76
Over 3.5 goals	17%	5.88
Both teams to score	44%	2.27
Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw	67%	1.49
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or Draw	64%	1.56
Shimizu S-Pulse to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.97
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.62
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet	35%	2.83
Tokyo Verdy 1969 clean sheet	33%	3.02

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%

0-012.5%

1-012.1%

0-111.4%

2-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is Shimizu S-Pulse to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score 1.1 goals and Tokyo Verdy 1969 1.0.

Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Shimizu S-Pulse last 20 games and 9 of Tokyo Verdy 1969 last 20.

How are Shimizu S-Pulse playing?

How are Tokyo Verdy 1969 playing?

What happened when Shimizu S-Pulse and Tokyo Verdy 1969 last met?

It ended Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Tokyo Verdy 1969 0. In the last 1 meeting Shimizu S-Pulse won 1 and Tokyo Verdy 1969 won 0.

What is the best bet for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Shimizu against Tokyo Verdy. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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