Predictions › Austria › SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

Austrian BundesligaSun 18 Oct, 15:00 Austria time

SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction

Merkur Arena

SK Sturm GrazHome

1.53 : 0.79

expected goals

Grazer AKAway

54%Sturm Graz

27%Draw

19%Grazer

Eagle safe pickSK Sturm Graz or Draw

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27.

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: SK Sturm Graz 1.5, Grazer AK 0.8
Best bet: SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

SK Sturm Graz or Draw

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives SK Sturm Graz 54%, the draw 27% and Grazer AK 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
SK Sturm Graz took 5 points from their last 5 games and Grazer AK took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
SK Sturm Graz won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Grazer AK won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.0. Grazer AK score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of SK Sturm Graz games and 12 of Grazer AK games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, SK Sturm Graz won 1 and Grazer AK won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended SK Sturm Graz 2, Grazer AK 1.
6
The safest bet
SK Sturm Graz or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sturm Grazrecent form-1%
Grazerrecent form-1%

Sturm Graz form L D W L DGrazer form D W D L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: SK Sturm Graz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SK Sturm Graz host Grazer AK in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 at Merkur Arena. Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Grazer AK form

Grazer AK have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. SK Sturm Graz won 1, Grazer AK won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished SK Sturm Graz 2, Grazer AK 1.

Our call

We expect SK Sturm Graz to score about 1.5 goals and Grazer AK about 0.8. That points to SK Sturm Graz to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27. Our bold bet is SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sturm Graz	Grazer
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	10	4
Losses	2	8
Goals scored	30	28
Goals conceded	20	29
Scored per game	1.5	1.4
Conceded per game	1.0	1.4
Home record	4W 6D 0L	5W 4D 0L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	3W 0D 8L
Clean sheets	35%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.47
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.85
Both teams to score	44%	2.29
SK Sturm Graz or Draw	81%	1.23
Grazer AK or Draw	46%	2.18
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.51
Grazer AK to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.73
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet	45%	2.21
Grazer AK clean sheet	22%	4.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.3%

1-112.6%

2-011.5%

0-010.5%

2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect SK Sturm Graz to score 1.5 goals and Grazer AK 0.8.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of SK Sturm Graz last 20 games and 9 of Grazer AK last 20.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

How are Grazer AK playing?

What happened when SK Sturm Graz and Grazer AK last met?

It ended SK Sturm Graz 2, Grazer AK 1. In the last 1 meeting SK Sturm Graz won 1 and Grazer AK won 0.

What is the best bet for SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sturm Graz against Grazer. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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