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Predictions › Austria › SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
Austrian BundesligaSun 13 Sept, 15:00 Austria time

SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz prediction

Merkur Arena

SK Sturm GrazHome
1.29 : 1.79
expected goals
LASK LinzAway
27%Sturm Graz
24%Draw
49%LASK Linz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz is LASK Linz to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
LASK Linz to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
SK Sturm Graz 1.3, LASK Linz 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

LASK Linz to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SK Sturm Graz 27%, the draw 24% and LASK Linz 49%. The bookmakers agree and make LASK Linz the favourite at 1.91.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SK Sturm Graz took 8 points from their last 5 games and LASK Linz took 12 from 5. LASK Linz come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SK Sturm Graz won 5 of their last 10 games at home. LASK Linz won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.8. LASK Linz score 2.3 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of SK Sturm Graz games and 14 of LASK Linz games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, SK Sturm Graz won 0 and LASK Linz won 1 with 2 draws. The last one ended SK Sturm Graz 1, LASK Linz 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • LASK Linzrecent form+1%
Sturm Graz form L D W L WLASK Linz form L W W W LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz: LASK Linz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SK Sturm Graz host LASK Linz in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sun 13 Sept, 15:00 at Merkur Arena. Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz is LASK Linz to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

LASK Linz form

LASK Linz have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. SK Sturm Graz won 0, LASK Linz won 1 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished SK Sturm Graz 1, LASK Linz 1.

Our call

We expect SK Sturm Graz to score about 1.3 goals and LASK Linz about 1.8. That points to LASK Linz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is LASK Linz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sturm GrazLASK Linz
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws95
Losses23
Goals scored3046
Goals conceded1724
Scored per game1.52.3
Conceded per game0.81.2
Home record5W 5D 0L7W 2D 1L
Away record4W 4D 2L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets40%25%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals20%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
SK Sturm Graz to win26%3.923.40-13.2%
A Draw23%4.364.10-6.1%
LASK Linz to win47%2.131.91-10.2%
Over 3.5 goals39%2.562.10-18.1%
Under 3.5 goals59%1.711.67-2.4%
SK Sturm Graz +0.549%2.051.87-8.6%
LASK Linz -0.549%2.051.83-10.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals59%1.68
Over 3.5 goals37%2.70
Both teams to score61%1.64
SK Sturm Graz or Draw51%1.95
LASK Linz or Draw73%1.37
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.518%5.60
LASK Linz to win and Over 2.534%2.98
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet17%5.99
LASK Linz clean sheet28%3.63

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-29.5%
0-17.6%
0-27.4%
2-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz is LASK Linz to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect SK Sturm Graz to score 1.3 goals and LASK Linz 1.8.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of SK Sturm Graz last 20 games and 14 of LASK Linz last 20.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are LASK Linz playing?

LASK Linz have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when SK Sturm Graz and LASK Linz last met?

It ended SK Sturm Graz 1, LASK Linz 1. In the last 3 meetings SK Sturm Graz won 0 and LASK Linz won 1.

What is the best bet for SK Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sturm Graz against LASK Linz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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