EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Europa League › SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje
Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje prediction

Merkur Arena

SK Sturm GrazHome
1.91 : 1.02
expected goals
NK CeljeAway
57%Sturm Graz
23%Draw
19%NK Celje
Eagle safe pickSK Sturm Graz or Draw
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction
SK Sturm Graz to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
SK Sturm Graz 1.9, NK Celje 1.0
Best bet
SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

SK Sturm Graz or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SK Sturm Graz 57%, the draw 23% and NK Celje 19%. The bookmakers agree and make SK Sturm Graz the favourite at 1.57.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SK Sturm Graz took 10 points from their last 5 games and NK Celje took 4 from 5. SK Sturm Graz come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SK Sturm Graz won 5 of their last 11 games at home. NK Celje won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SK Sturm Graz score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. NK Celje score 1.4 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of SK Sturm Graz games and 9 of NK Celje games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    SK Sturm Graz or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sturm Grazrecent form+3%
  • NK Celjerecent form-4%
  • Sturm Grazrest between games-5%
Sturm Graz form D W W L WNK Celje form D L L L DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje: SK Sturm Graz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SK Sturm Graz host NK Celje in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at Merkur Arena. Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

NK Celje form

NK Celje have 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 13 games, with 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect SK Sturm Graz to score about 1.9 goals and NK Celje about 1.0. That points to SK Sturm Graz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5 at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sturm GrazNK Celje
Games played2013
Wins86
Draws92
Losses35
Goals scored2918
Goals conceded2122
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.11.7
Home record5W 6D 0L3W 2D 2L
Away record3W 3D 3L3W 0D 3L
Clean sheets35%23%
Both teams scored55%46%
Over 2.5 goals35%69%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
SK Sturm Graz to win52%1.911.57-18.0%
A Draw23%4.434.30-2.9%
NK Celje to win19%5.295.00-5.5%
Over 3.5 goals37%2.702.35-12.9%
Under 3.5 goals58%1.721.53-11.3%
SK Sturm Graz -0.553%1.871.51-19.3%
NK Celje +0.541%2.462.25-8.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.96
Both teams to score55%1.81
SK Sturm Graz or Draw81%1.24
NK Celje or Draw43%2.35
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.538%2.62
NK Celje to win and Over 2.512%8.59
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet36%2.78
NK Celje clean sheet15%6.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-19.9%
2-09.7%
1-09.5%
3-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect SK Sturm Graz to score 1.9 goals and NK Celje 1.0.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of SK Sturm Graz last 20 games and 6 of NK Celje last 13.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are NK Celje playing?

NK Celje have 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 13 games, with 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?

SK Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sturm Graz against NK Celje. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.