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Predictions › Austria › SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried
Austrian BundesligaSun 25 Oct, 13:30 Austria time

SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried prediction

Merkur Arena

SK Sturm GrazHome
1.46 : 0.85
expected goals
SV Josko RiedAway
50%Sturm Graz
28%Draw
21%SV Josko Ried
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
SK Sturm Graz to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
SK Sturm Graz 1.5, SV Josko Ried 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 7.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SK Sturm Graz 50%, the draw 28% and SV Josko Ried 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SK Sturm Graz took 7 points from their last 5 games and SV Josko Ried took 10 from 5. SV Josko Ried come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SK Sturm Graz won 4 of their last 10 games at home. SV Josko Ried won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.9. SV Josko Ried score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of SK Sturm Graz games and 11 of SV Josko Ried games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, SK Sturm Graz won 1 and SV Josko Ried won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended SK Sturm Graz 1, SV Josko Ried 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sturm Grazrecent form-1%
  • SV Josko Riedrecent form+1%
Sturm Graz form D L D W LSV Josko Ried form D W D L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried: SK Sturm Graz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SK Sturm Graz host SV Josko Ried in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sun 25 Oct, 13:30 at Merkur Arena. Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

SV Josko Ried form

SV Josko Ried have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. SK Sturm Graz won 1, SV Josko Ried won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished SK Sturm Graz 1, SV Josko Ried 0.

Our call

We expect SK Sturm Graz to score about 1.5 goals and SV Josko Ried about 0.8. That points to SK Sturm Graz to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sturm GrazSV Josko Ried
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws94
Losses28
Goals scored3027
Goals conceded1829
Scored per game1.51.4
Conceded per game0.91.4
Home record4W 6D 0L7W 1D 2L
Away record5W 3D 2L1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals25%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.46
Over 3.5 goals20%4.94
Both teams to score45%2.23
SK Sturm Graz or Draw79%1.27
SV Josko Ried or Draw50%2.02
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.526%3.81
SV Josko Ried to win and Over 2.510%10.03
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet43%2.35
SV Josko Ried clean sheet23%4.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.7%
1-113.1%
0-010.7%
2-010.5%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried?

Our prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect SK Sturm Graz to score 1.5 goals and SV Josko Ried 0.8.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of SK Sturm Graz last 20 games and 13 of SV Josko Ried last 20.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

How are SV Josko Ried playing?

SV Josko Ried have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when SK Sturm Graz and SV Josko Ried last met?

It ended SK Sturm Graz 1, SV Josko Ried 0. In the last 1 meeting SK Sturm Graz won 1 and SV Josko Ried won 0.

What is the best bet for SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sturm Graz against SV Josko Ried. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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