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Predictions › United States › SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
College FootballSat 21 Nov, 19:30 United States time

SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction

Notre Dame Stadium

SMU MustangsAway
20.2 : 36.9
projected points
Notre Dame Fighting IrishHome
15%SMU
85%Notre Dame
Eagle safe pickNotre Dame to win
-847

Quick answer

Our prediction for SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish is Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win, with a 85% chance. We project SMU Mustangs 20.2 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish 36.9. Our best bet is Notre Dame to win at -847.

Prediction
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win
Chance
85%
Projected score
SMU Mustangs 20, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37
Projected total
57.1 points
Best bet
Notre Dame to win at -847

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Notre Dame to win
85% chancePrice -8471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Notre Dame Fighting Irish 85% and SMU Mustangs 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Notre Dame Fighting Irish the favourite at -847.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 4 of their last 5 and SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 11 of their last 12 games at home. SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish score 41.7 points a game and let in 15.8. SMU Mustangs score 33.3 and let in 20.6. Their recent games average 57.5 and 53.9 points in total, and the market line is 57.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Notre Dame to win has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Notre Dame Fighting Irish are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Notre Dame Fighting Irish host SMU Mustangs in the College Football on Sat 21 Nov, 19:30 at Notre Dame Stadium. Our prediction for SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish is Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win, with a 85% chance. We project SMU Mustangs 20.2 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish 36.9. Our best bet is Notre Dame to win at -847.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish form

Notre Dame Fighting Irish have 18 wins and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 834 points scored and 315 conceded. At home they have 11 wins and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

SMU Mustangs form

SMU Mustangs have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 665 points scored and 412 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect SMU Mustangs to score about 20.2 points and Notre Dame Fighting Irish about 36.9. That points to Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win. Our safest bet is Notre Dame to win at -847.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Notre DameSMU
Games played2020
Wins1815
Losses25
Points scored834665
Points conceded315412
Scored per game41.733.3
Conceded per game15.820.6
Home record11W 1L11W 0L
Away record7W 1L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Notre Dame to win85%-587-847-4.5%
SMU to win13%+657+575-10.8%
Notre Dame -16.547%+113-110-10.3%
SMU +16.546%+117-110-12.1%
Over 57.5 points46%+118-110-12.5%
Under 57.5 points47%+112-110-9.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Notre Dame spreadCoversFair
Notre Dame -23.534%+197
Notre Dame -19.543%+132
Notre Dame -16.551%-103
Notre Dame -13.558%-138
Notre Dame -9.567%-208
Total pointsOverUnder
50.566%34%
54.557%43%
57.549%51%
60.542%58%
64.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Notre Dame +3.5 wins if Notre Dame win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
College Football

Notre Dame Edges Miami 31-24 After Channeling 1988 History

Notre Dame built a big lead and held off Miami for a 31-24 victory on Saturday night.

9 Nov 2026
College Football

Notre Dame Tops Miami 31-24 to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

Notre Dame built a big lead and held off a late Miami comeback to defeat the top ranked Hurricanes 31-24 in South Bend.

8 Nov 2026
College Football

Cristobal Fumes After Controversial Call in Miami Loss to Notre Dame

Miami coach Mario Cristobal expressed anger over a late overturned touchdown in a 31-24 loss at Notre Dame.

8 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

Our prediction for SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish is Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win, with a 85% chance. We project SMU Mustangs 20.2 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish 36.9. Our best bet is Notre Dame to win at -847.

What is the projected score for SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

We project SMU Mustangs 20.2 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish 36.9, about 57.1 points in total.

How are Notre Dame Fighting Irish playing?

Notre Dame Fighting Irish have 18 wins and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 834 points scored and 315 conceded. At home they have 11 wins and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are SMU Mustangs playing?

SMU Mustangs have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 665 points scored and 412 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

Notre Dame to win at -847, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Notre Dame against SMU. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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