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Predictions › United Kingdom › Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers
ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers prediction

St. Mary's Stadium

SouthamptonHome
2.93 : 1.04
expected goals
Bolton WanderersAway
75%Southampton
15%Draw
10%Bolton
Eagle safe pickSouthampton draw no bet
1/6

Quick answer

Our prediction for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers is Southampton to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Southampton draw no bet at 1/6.

Prediction
Southampton to win
Chance
75%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Southampton 2.9, Bolton Wanderers 1.0
Best bet
Southampton draw no bet at 1/6
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Southampton draw no bet
86% chanceFair price 1/62 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Southampton to win and both score
40% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Southampton 75%, the draw 15% and Bolton Wanderers 10%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Southampton took 8 points from their last 5 games and Bolton Wanderers took 6 from 5. Southampton come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Southampton won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Bolton Wanderers won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Southampton score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.3. Bolton Wanderers score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Southampton games and 11 of Bolton Wanderers games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Southampton draw no bet has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Southamptonrecent form+1%
  • Boltonrecent form-1%
Southampton form L W W D DBolton form W W L L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers: Southampton are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Southampton host Bolton Wanderers in the Championship on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium. Our prediction for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers is Southampton to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Southampton draw no bet at 1/6.

Southampton form

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Bolton Wanderers form

Bolton Wanderers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Southampton to score about 2.9 goals and Bolton Wanderers about 1.0. That points to Southampton to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Southampton draw no bet at 1/6. Our bold bet is Southampton to win and both score at 6/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SouthamptonBolton
Games played2020
Wins118
Draws54
Losses48
Goals scored4432
Goals conceded2531
Scored per game2.21.6
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record7W 2D 1L5W 2D 3L
Away record4W 3D 3L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored85%55%
Over 2.5 goals80%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals91%1/10
Over 2.5 goals76%1/3
Over 3.5 goals56%4/5
Both teams to score62%8/13
Southampton or Draw90%1/9
Bolton Wanderers or Draw25%3/1
Southampton to win and Over 2.562%8/13
Bolton Wanderers to win and Over 2.57%12/1
Southampton clean sheet35%15/8
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet5%18/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-18.4%
3-18.2%
2-08.1%
3-07.9%
1-16.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?

Our prediction for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers is Southampton to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Southampton draw no bet at 1/6.

What is the score prediction for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-1 and 2-0. We expect Southampton to score 2.9 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.0.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of Southampton last 20 games and 11 of Bolton Wanderers last 20.

How are Southampton playing?

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Bolton Wanderers playing?

Bolton Wanderers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?

Southampton draw no bet at 1/6, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Southampton against Bolton. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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