Predictions › United Kingdom › Southampton vs Derby County

ChampionshipSat 21 Nov, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Southampton vs Derby County prediction

St. Mary's Stadium

SouthamptonHome

2.39 : 0.93

expected goals

Derby CountyAway

69%Southampton

18%Draw

12%Derby

Eagle safe pickSouthampton to win

2/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Southampton vs Derby County is Southampton to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 2/5.

Prediction: Southampton to win
Chance: 69%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Southampton 2.4, Derby County 0.9
Best bet: Southampton to win at 2/5
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Southampton to win

70% chancePrice 2/51 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Southampton to win and both score

33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Southampton 69%, the draw 18% and Derby County 12%. The bookmakers agree and make Southampton the favourite at 2/5.
2
Recent form
Southampton took 8 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 4 from 5. Southampton come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Southampton won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Derby County won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Southampton score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.1. Derby County score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Southampton games and 13 of Derby County games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Southampton won 1 and Derby County won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Southampton 2, Derby County 1.
6
The safest bet
Southampton to win has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Southamptonrecent form+3%
Derbyrecent form-3%

Southampton form D D W W DDerby form W L L D LHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Southampton vs Derby County: Southampton are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Southampton host Derby County in the Championship on Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 at St. Mary's Stadium. Our prediction for Southampton vs Derby County is Southampton to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 2/5.

Southampton form

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Southampton won 1, Derby County won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Southampton 2, Derby County 1.

Our call

We expect Southampton to score about 2.4 goals and Derby County about 0.9. That points to Southampton to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Southampton to win at 2/5. Our bold bet is Southampton to win and both score at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Southampton	Derby
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	4
Draws	5	4
Losses	4	12
Goals scored	37	21
Goals conceded	21	38
Scored per game	1.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.9
Home record	7W 1D 1L	2W 2D 7L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Southampton to win	70%	4/9	2/5	-3.0%
A Draw	18%	9/2	4/1	-12.3%
Derby County to win	12%	15/2	6/1	-18.0%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	6/4	5/4	-8.5%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	10/11	4/7	-17.2%
Southampton -1.5	44%	5/4	10/11	-14.1%
Derby County +1.5	49%	21/20	4/6	-17.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	2/11
Over 2.5 goals	64%	8/15
Over 3.5 goals	42%	11/8
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Southampton or Draw	88%	1/7
Derby County or Draw	31%	9/4
Southampton to win and Over 2.5	51%	Evens
Derby County to win and Over 2.5	8%	11/1
Southampton clean sheet	39%	6/4
Derby County clean sheet	9%	10/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.3%

2-19.6%

1-18.5%

3-08.2%

1-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Championship

Southampton Look Ahead After The Spying Scandal That Cost Them Promotion

Southampton are working to put last season's playoff expulsion behind them under manager Tonda Eckert.

4 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Southampton vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Southampton vs Derby County is Southampton to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 2/5.

What is the score prediction for Southampton vs Derby County?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect Southampton to score 2.4 goals and Derby County 0.9.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Southampton last 20 games and 13 of Derby County last 20.

How are Southampton playing?

How are Derby County playing?

What happened when Southampton and Derby County last met?

It ended Southampton 2, Derby County 1. In the last 2 meetings Southampton won 1 and Derby County won 0.

What is the best bet for Southampton vs Derby County?

Southampton to win at 2/5, with a 70% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Southampton against Derby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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