Predictions › United Kingdom › Southampton vs Portsmouth

ChampionshipSun 11 Oct, 12:00 United Kingdom time

Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction

St. Mary's Stadium

SouthamptonHome

2.09 : 0.97

expected goals

PortsmouthAway

63%Southampton

21%Draw

16%Portsmouth

Eagle safe pickSouthampton to win

4/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth is Southampton to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 4/7.

Prediction: Southampton to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Southampton 2.1, Portsmouth 1.0
Best bet: Southampton to win at 4/7
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Southampton to win

61% chancePrice 4/71 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Southampton to win and Over 2.5

40% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Southampton 63%, the draw 21% and Portsmouth 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Southampton the favourite at 4/7.
2
Recent form
Southampton took 8 points from their last 5 games and Portsmouth took 5 from 5. Southampton come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Southampton won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Portsmouth won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Southampton score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.3. Portsmouth score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Southampton games and 10 of Portsmouth games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Southampton won 0 and Portsmouth won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Portsmouth 1, Southampton 1.
6
The safest bet
Southampton to win has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Southamptonrecent form+1%
Portsmouthrecent form-1%

Southampton form L W W D DPortsmouth form D D W L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Southampton vs Portsmouth: Southampton are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Southampton host Portsmouth in the Championship on Sun 11 Oct, 12:00 at St. Mary's Stadium. Our prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth is Southampton to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 4/7.

Southampton form

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Portsmouth form

Portsmouth have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Southampton won 0, Portsmouth won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Portsmouth 1, Southampton 1.

Our call

We expect Southampton to score about 2.1 goals and Portsmouth about 1.0. That points to Southampton to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Southampton to win at 4/7. Our bold bet is Southampton to win and Over 2.5 at 6/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Southampton	Portsmouth
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	6
Draws	5	6
Losses	4	8
Goals scored	44	25
Goals conceded	25	33
Scored per game	2.2	1.3
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	7W 2D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	85%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Southampton to win	61%	4/6	4/7	-4.5%
A Draw	21%	7/2	10/3	-11.6%
Portsmouth to win	16%	5/1	4/1	-19.9%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6	8/13	-11.8%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	6/4	11/10	-14.4%
Southampton -0.5	58%	8/11	1/2	-12.5%
Portsmouth +0.5	37%	7/4	5/4	-16.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	59%	4/6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	7/4
Both teams to score	55%	5/6
Southampton or Draw	84%	1/5
Portsmouth or Draw	37%	13/8
Southampton to win and Over 2.5	43%	11/8
Portsmouth to win and Over 2.5	10%	9/1
Southampton clean sheet	38%	13/8
Portsmouth clean sheet	12%	7/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.2%

1-110.1%

2-19.9%

1-09.2%

3-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Southampton vs Portsmouth?

Our prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth is Southampton to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Southampton to win at 4/7.

What is the score prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-1. We expect Southampton to score 2.1 goals and Portsmouth 1.0.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Portsmouth?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of Southampton last 20 games and 13 of Portsmouth last 20.

How are Southampton playing?

How are Portsmouth playing?

What happened when Southampton and Portsmouth last met?

It ended Portsmouth 1, Southampton 1. In the last 2 meetings Southampton won 0 and Portsmouth won 0.

What is the best bet for Southampton vs Portsmouth?

Southampton to win at 4/7, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Southampton against Portsmouth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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