Predictions › Europa League › Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth

Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth prediction

Generali Arena

Sparta PragueHome

1.14 : 1.90

expected goals

AFC BournemouthAway

22%Sparta

24%Draw

55%Bournemouth

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: AFC Bournemouth to win
Chance: 55%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sparta Prague 1.1, AFC Bournemouth 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5

37% chanceFair price 2.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sparta Prague 22%, the draw 24% and AFC Bournemouth 55%. The bookmakers agree and make AFC Bournemouth the favourite at 1.59.
2
Recent form
Sparta Prague took 4 points from their last 5 games and AFC Bournemouth took 12 from 5. AFC Bournemouth come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sparta Prague won 2 of their last 5 games at home. AFC Bournemouth won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sparta Prague score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. AFC Bournemouth score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Sparta Prague games and 14 of AFC Bournemouth games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Spartarecent form+1%
Bournemouthrecent form+3%
Bournemouthrest between games-5%

Sparta form D D W L WBournemouth form D W W W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sparta Prague host AFC Bournemouth in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Generali Arena. Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Sparta Prague form

Sparta Prague have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sparta Prague to score about 1.1 goals and AFC Bournemouth about 1.9. That points to AFC Bournemouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5 at 2.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sparta	Bournemouth
Games played	11	20
Wins	5	10
Draws	2	7
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	16	38
Goals conceded	12	22
Scored per game	1.5	1.9
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	2W 2D 1L	5W 5D 1L
Away record	3W 0D 3L	5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	27%	35%
Both teams scored	45%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sparta Prague to win	21%	4.69	5.00	+6.7%
A Draw	23%	4.38	4.20	-4.1%
AFC Bournemouth to win	50%	1.99	1.59	-20.3%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.87	1.57	-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.48	2.30	-7.1%
Sparta Prague +0.5	42%	2.41	2.20	-8.5%
AFC Bournemouth -0.5	52%	1.91	1.53	-20.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.77
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
Sparta Prague or Draw	45%	2.20
AFC Bournemouth or Draw	78%	1.28
Sparta Prague to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.16
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.67
Sparta Prague clean sheet	15%	6.70
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet	32%	3.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

1-29.8%

0-28.7%

0-18.5%

1-36.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Carrick Under Heavy Fire After Manchester United Lose 3-0 To Bournemouth

Michael Carrick faces the sack after Manchester United fell to a 3-0 home defeat against Bournemouth at Old Trafford.

25 Oct 2026

Premier League

Iraola Faces Tricky Bournemouth Return as Liverpool Manager

Andoni Iraola prepares to face his former club Bournemouth as unbeaten Liverpool look to exploit extra rest days.

19 Sept 2026

Premier League

Manchester United Eye Bournemouth Defender Adrien Truffert

Manchester United are looking at Bournemouth's Adrien Truffert as a potential replacement for Luke Shaw, but he will cost £60 million.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth?

Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Sparta Prague to score 1.1 goals and AFC Bournemouth 1.9.

Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Sparta Prague last 11 games and 12 of AFC Bournemouth last 20.

How are Sparta Prague playing?

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

What is the best bet for Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sparta against Bournemouth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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