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Predictions › Europa League › Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom prediction

Generali Arena

Sparta PragueHome
2.06 : 0.88
expected goals
LillestromAway
64%Sparta
21%Draw
15%Lillestrom
Eagle safe pickSparta Prague or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom is Sparta Prague to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Sparta Prague to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Sparta Prague 2.1, Lillestrom 0.9
Best bet
Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sparta Prague or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sparta Prague to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sparta Prague 64%, the draw 21% and Lillestrom 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Sparta Prague the favourite at 1.36.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sparta Prague took 9 points from their last 5 games and Lillestrom took 6 from 5. Sparta Prague come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sparta Prague won 2 of their last 4 games at home. Lillestrom won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sparta Prague score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Lillestrom score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Sparta Prague games and 11 of Lillestrom games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Sparta Prague or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Spartarecent form-1%
  • Lillestromrecent form-1%
Sparta form W L W L LLillestrom form L L W W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom: Sparta Prague are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sparta Prague host Lillestrom in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at Generali Arena. Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom is Sparta Prague to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21.

Sparta Prague form

Sparta Prague have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sparta Prague to score about 2.1 goals and Lillestrom about 0.9. That points to Sparta Prague to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Sparta Prague to win and Over 2.5 at 2.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SpartaLillestrom
Games played920
Wins58
Draws12
Losses310
Goals scored1525
Goals conceded1030
Scored per game1.71.3
Conceded per game1.11.5
Home record2W 1D 1L5W 0D 6L
Away record3W 0D 2L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets33%25%
Both teams scored44%45%
Over 2.5 goals67%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Sparta Prague to win64%1.571.36-13.6%
A Draw21%4.765.00+5.1%
Lillestrom to win14%6.947.50+8.1%
Over 2.5 goals56%1.791.56-13.2%
Under 2.5 goals39%2.582.30-11.0%
Sparta Prague -1.543%2.321.87-19.3%
Lillestrom +1.551%1.951.74-10.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.94
Both teams to score52%1.93
Sparta Prague or Draw85%1.17
Lillestrom or Draw36%2.78
Sparta Prague to win and Over 2.543%2.35
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.58%11.77
Sparta Prague clean sheet41%2.42
Lillestrom clean sheet13%7.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.2%
1-010.3%
1-110.2%
2-19.9%
3-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?

Our prediction for Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom is Sparta Prague to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Sparta Prague to score 2.1 goals and Lillestrom 0.9.

Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Sparta Prague last 9 games and 9 of Lillestrom last 20.

How are Sparta Prague playing?

Sparta Prague have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?

Sparta Prague or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sparta against Lillestrom. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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