Predictions › Netherlands › Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam

EredivisieSun 25 Oct, 15:45 Netherlands time

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction

Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Sparta RotterdamHome

0.93 : 2.32

expected goals

Ajax AmsterdamAway

13%Sparta

19%Draw

68%Ajax

Eagle safe pickAjax Amsterdam or Draw

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance: 68%
Most likely score: 0-2
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 0.9, Ajax Amsterdam 2.3
Best bet: Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ajax Amsterdam or Draw

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score

31% chanceFair price 3.191 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam 13%, the draw 19% and Ajax Amsterdam 68%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam took 2 points from their last 5 games and Ajax Amsterdam took 8 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Ajax Amsterdam won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.2 goals a game and let in 2.3. Ajax Amsterdam score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sparta Rotterdam games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and Ajax Amsterdam won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Ajax Amsterdam 4, Sparta Rotterdam 0.
6
The safest bet
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Spartarecent form-4%
Ajaxrecent form+3%
Ajaxrest between games-5%

Sparta form D L L D LAjax form D D D W WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam: Ajax Amsterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie on Sun 25 Oct, 15:45 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 46 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sparta Rotterdam won 0, Ajax Amsterdam won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Ajax Amsterdam 4, Sparta Rotterdam 0.

Our call

We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score about 0.9 goals and Ajax Amsterdam about 2.3. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and both score at 3.19.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sparta	Ajax
Games played	20	20
Wins	2	8
Draws	7	7
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	24	41
Goals conceded	46	23
Scored per game	1.2	2.0
Conceded per game	2.3	1.1
Home record	1W 5D 4L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	1W 2D 7L	5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	10%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.59
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.45
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	32%	3.14
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	87%	1.15
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.24
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	49%	2.04
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	10%	10.21
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	40%	2.52

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-210.5%

1-29.7%

1-18.9%

0-18.5%

0-38.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 1-1. We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.9 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 2.3.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20 games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20.

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

What happened when Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax Amsterdam last met?

It ended Ajax Amsterdam 4, Sparta Rotterdam 0. In the last 2 meetings Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and Ajax Amsterdam won 1.

What is the best bet for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Ajax Amsterdam or Draw at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sparta against Ajax. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.