Predictions › Netherlands › Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar

EredivisieSun 22 Nov, 13:30 Netherlands time

Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Sparta RotterdamHome

1.32 : 1.90

expected goals

AZ AlkmaarAway

26%Sparta

24%Draw

50%AZ Alkmaar

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.3, AZ Alkmaar 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sparta Rotterdam to win

26% chancePrice 4.00+2.3% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam 26%, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 50%. The bookmakers agree and make AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 1.71.
2
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam took 7 points from their last 5 games and AZ Alkmaar took 6 from 5. Sparta Rotterdam come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of their last 10 games at home. AZ Alkmaar won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.4. AZ Alkmaar score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Sparta Rotterdam games and 10 of AZ Alkmaar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended AZ Alkmaar 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Spartarecent form-1%
AZ Alkmaarrecent form-1%

Sparta form L W L L WAZ Alkmaar form W L L L WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sparta Rotterdam host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie on Sun 22 Nov, 13:30 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 48 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sparta Rotterdam won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AZ Alkmaar 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.

Our call

We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score about 1.3 goals and AZ Alkmaar about 1.9. That points to AZ Alkmaar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Sparta Rotterdam to win at 4.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sparta	AZ Alkmaar
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	9
Draws	5	6
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	28	37
Goals conceded	48	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.9
Conceded per game	2.4	1.3
Home record	2W 3D 5L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	10%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sparta Rotterdam to win	26%	3.91	4.00	+2.3%
A Draw	23%	4.37	4.10	-6.1%
AZ Alkmaar to win	47%	2.14	1.71	-19.7%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.00	-16.0%
Under 3.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.67	-14.6%
Sparta Rotterdam +0.5	44%	2.27	2.00	-12.1%
AZ Alkmaar -0.5	49%	2.03	1.65	-19.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.48
Both teams to score	63%	1.59
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	50%	2.01
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	74%	1.35
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.56
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5	36%	2.77
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	15%	6.68
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	27%	3.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%

1-29.5%

0-27.2%

0-17.0%

2-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.3 goals and AZ Alkmaar 1.9.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20 games and 11 of AZ Alkmaar last 20.

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

What happened when Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last met?

It ended AZ Alkmaar 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1. In the last 2 meetings Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 2.

What is the best bet for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sparta against AZ Alkmaar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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