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Predictions › Netherlands › Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
EredivisieSat 17 Oct, 19:00 Netherlands time

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction

Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Sparta RotterdamHome
1.87 : 1.49
expected goals
Willem IIAway
46%Sparta
24%Draw
30%Willem II
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is Sparta Rotterdam to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Sparta Rotterdam to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sparta Rotterdam 1.9, Willem II 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sparta Rotterdam 46%, the draw 24% and Willem II 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sparta Rotterdam took 2 points from their last 5 games and Willem II took 2 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Willem II won 0 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sparta Rotterdam score 1.1 goals a game and let in 2.3. Willem II score 0.9 and let in 2.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Sparta Rotterdam games and 5 of Willem II games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Spartarecent form-4%
  • Willem IIrecent form-4%
Sparta form L L D L DWillem II form L L D L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: Sparta Rotterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is Sparta Rotterdam to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 45 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Willem II form

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score about 1.9 goals and Willem II about 1.5. That points to Sparta Rotterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 3.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SpartaWillem II
Games played207
Wins20
Draws72
Losses115
Goals scored236
Goals conceded4520
Scored per game1.10.9
Conceded per game2.32.9
Home record1W 5D 4L0W 1D 3L
Away record1W 2D 7L0W 1D 2L
Clean sheets10%0%
Both teams scored65%71%
Over 2.5 goals70%71%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.17
Over 2.5 goals65%1.53
Over 3.5 goals43%2.31
Both teams to score66%1.51
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw70%1.44
Willem II or Draw54%1.85
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.534%2.93
Willem II to win and Over 2.522%4.56
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet22%4.45
Willem II clean sheet15%6.49

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-19.0%
1-27.2%
2-26.7%
2-06.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is Sparta Rotterdam to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.9 goals and Willem II 1.5.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20 games and 5 of Willem II last 7.

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 45 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Willem II playing?

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sparta against Willem II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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