Predictions › Peru › Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Peru time

Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Sport BoysHome

1.41 : 0.78

expected goals

Deportivo GarcilasoAway

51%Sport Boys

29%Draw

20%Garcilaso

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Sport Boys to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Sport Boys to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Sport Boys 1.4, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

15% chanceFair price 6.621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sport Boys 51%, the draw 29% and Deportivo Garcilaso 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Sport Boys the favourite at 1.69.
2
Recent form
Sport Boys took 8 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Garcilaso took 13 from 5. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sport Boys won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo Garcilaso won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Sport Boys score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sport Boys games and 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Sport Boys won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Garcilaso 3, Sport Boys 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sport Boysrecent form+1%
Garcilasorecent form+6%

Sport Boys form L W W D DGarcilaso form W W W D WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Sport Boys are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sport Boys host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao. Our prediction for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Sport Boys to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Sport Boys form

Sport Boys have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sport Boys won 0, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Garcilaso 3, Sport Boys 2.

Our call

We expect Sport Boys to score about 1.4 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso about 0.8. That points to Sport Boys to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.62.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sport Boys	Garcilaso
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	12
Draws	5	4
Losses	7	4
Goals scored	25	30
Goals conceded	22	17
Scored per game	1.3	1.5
Conceded per game	1.1	0.8
Home record	6W 3D 1L	9W 1D 0L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	45%
Both teams scored	45%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sport Boys to win	50%	1.99	1.69	-15.0%
A Draw	27%	3.64	3.50	-3.9%
Deportivo Garcilaso to win	18%	5.48	4.50	-17.9%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.47	2.00	-19.1%
Under 2.5 goals	57%	1.75	1.69	-3.5%
Sport Boys -0.5	53%	1.88	1.67	-11.4%
Deportivo Garcilaso +0.5	44%	2.25	2.00	-11.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	65%	1.54
Over 2.5 goals	37%	2.68
Over 3.5 goals	18%	5.64
Both teams to score	42%	2.41
Sport Boys or Draw	80%	1.25
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw	49%	2.05
Sport Boys to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.01
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.72
Sport Boys clean sheet	46%	2.17
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	24%	4.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.1%

1-113.0%

0-012.0%

2-011.2%

2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Our prediction for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Sport Boys to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Sport Boys to score 1.4 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.8.

Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Sport Boys last 20 games and 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20.

How are Sport Boys playing?

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

What happened when Sport Boys and Deportivo Garcilaso last met?

It ended Deportivo Garcilaso 3, Sport Boys 2. In the last 1 meeting Sport Boys won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

What is the best bet for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sport Boys against Garcilaso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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