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Predictions › Peru › Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1Thu 29 Oct, 20:30 Peru time

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction

Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Sporting CristalHome
1.49 : 0.98
expected goals
Alianza LimaAway
48%Sporting Cristal
28%Draw
24%Alianza Lima
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Sporting Cristal to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sporting Cristal 1.5, Alianza Lima 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sporting Cristal 48%, the draw 28% and Alianza Lima 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sporting Cristal took 15 points from their last 5 games and Alianza Lima took 10 from 5. Sporting Cristal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sporting Cristal won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Alianza Lima won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sporting Cristal score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Alianza Lima score 1.9 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Sporting Cristal games and 9 of Alianza Lima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Sporting Cristal won 0 and Alianza Lima won 0 with 3 draws. The last one ended Alianza Lima 1, Sporting Cristal 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sporting Cristalrecent form+6%
  • Alianza Limarecent form+1%
  • Sporting Cristalrest between games-5%
  • Alianza Limarest between games-5%
Sporting Cristal form D W W W WAlianza Lima form D W W L DHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima: Sporting Cristal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sporting Cristal host Alianza Lima in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Thu 29 Oct, 20:30 at Estadio Alberto Gallardo. Our prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Sporting Cristal form

Sporting Cristal have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Sporting Cristal won 0, Alianza Lima won 0 and 3 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza Lima 1, Sporting Cristal 1.

Our call

We expect Sporting Cristal to score about 1.5 goals and Alianza Lima about 1.0. That points to Sporting Cristal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.5 at 3.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Sporting CristalAlianza Lima
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws36
Losses82
Goals scored3537
Goals conceded2915
Scored per game1.81.9
Conceded per game1.40.8
Home record7W 1D 1L8W 1D 2L
Away record2W 2D 7L4W 5D 0L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.24
Over 3.5 goals23%4.26
Both teams to score49%2.04
Sporting Cristal or Draw76%1.32
Alianza Lima or Draw52%1.94
Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.527%3.71
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.512%8.05
Sporting Cristal clean sheet38%2.65
Alianza Lima clean sheet23%4.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-011.9%
2-09.4%
0-09.3%
2-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

Our prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Sporting Cristal to score 1.5 goals and Alianza Lima 1.0.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sporting Cristal last 20 games and 12 of Alianza Lima last 20.

How are Sporting Cristal playing?

Sporting Cristal have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

Alianza Lima have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima last met?

It ended Alianza Lima 1, Sporting Cristal 1. In the last 3 meetings Sporting Cristal won 0 and Alianza Lima won 0.

What is the best bet for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sporting Cristal against Alianza Lima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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