Predictions › United States › Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC

MLSSat 24 Oct, 20:30 United States time

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC prediction

Sporting Park

Sporting Kansas CityHome

1.71 : 1.47

expected goals

Austin FCAway

43%Kansas City

25%Draw

33%Austin

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

-441

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC is Sporting Kansas City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -441.

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.7, Austin FC 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at -441
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price -4412 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sporting Kansas City to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price +2571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sporting Kansas City 43%, the draw 25% and Austin FC 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City took 4 points from their last 5 games and Austin FC took 5 from 5. Austin FC come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sporting Kansas City won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Austin FC won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Sporting Kansas City score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.4. Austin FC score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Sporting Kansas City games and 13 of Austin FC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Sporting Kansas City won 1 and Austin FC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Austin FC 1, Sporting Kansas City 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Kansas Cityrecent form-1%
Kansas Cityrest between games-5%
Austinrest between games-5%

Kansas City form D D L W LAustin form D L D D WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC: Sporting Kansas City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sporting Kansas City host Austin FC in the MLS on Sat 24 Oct, 20:30 at Sporting Park. Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC is Sporting Kansas City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -441.

Sporting Kansas City form

Sporting Kansas City have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 47 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Austin FC form

Austin FC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sporting Kansas City won 1, Austin FC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Austin FC 1, Sporting Kansas City 2.

Our call

We expect Sporting Kansas City to score about 1.7 goals and Austin FC about 1.5. That points to Sporting Kansas City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -441. Our bold bet is Sporting Kansas City to win and Over 2.5 at +257.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Kansas City	Austin
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	3	6
Losses	12	8
Goals scored	28	25
Goals conceded	47	35
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	2.4	1.8
Home record	3W 3D 4L	3W 4D 3L
Away record	2W 0D 8L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	5%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	-495
Over 2.5 goals	62%	-160
Over 3.5 goals	39%	+155
Both teams to score	64%	-175
Sporting Kansas City or Draw	67%	-206
Austin FC or Draw	57%	-134
Sporting Kansas City to win and Over 2.5	30%	+232
Austin FC to win and Over 2.5	23%	+341
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	23%	+335
Austin FC clean sheet	18%	+450

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%

2-18.9%

1-27.7%

2-26.6%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC is Sporting Kansas City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -441.

What is the score prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Sporting Kansas City to score 1.7 goals and Austin FC 1.5.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Sporting Kansas City last 20 games and 13 of Austin FC last 20.

How are Sporting Kansas City playing?

How are Austin FC playing?

What happened when Sporting Kansas City and Austin FC last met?

It ended Austin FC 1, Sporting Kansas City 2. In the last 1 meeting Sporting Kansas City won 1 and Austin FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

Over 1.5 goals at -441, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Kansas City against Austin. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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