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Predictions › United States › St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
MLBTue 22 Sept, 18:40 United States time

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction

PNC Park

St. Louis CardinalsAway
5.4 : 5.2
projected runs
Pittsburgh PiratesHome
54%Cardinals
46%Pirates
Eagle safe pickPirates +2.5
-245

Quick answer

Our prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates is St. Louis Cardinals to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project St. Louis Cardinals 5.4 and Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2. Our best bet is Pirates +2.5 at -245.

Prediction
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
St. Louis Cardinals 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Projected total
10.6 runs
Best bet
Pirates +2.5 at -245

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Pirates +2.5
71% chanceFair price -2451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Pittsburgh Pirates 46% and St. Louis Cardinals 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Pittsburgh Pirates won 3 of their last 5 and St. Louis Cardinals won 1 of their last 5. Pittsburgh Pirates come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Pittsburgh Pirates won 4 of their last 6 games at home. St. Louis Cardinals won 4 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Pittsburgh Pirates score 3.4 runs a game and let in 3.7. St. Louis Cardinals score 5.4 and let in 6.3. Their recent games average 7.1 and 11.8 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Pittsburgh Pirates won 4 and St. Louis Cardinals won 1. The last one ended St. Louis Cardinals 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Pirates +2.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Piratesrest between games-5%
  • Cardinalsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: St. Louis Cardinals shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pittsburgh Pirates host St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB on Tue 22 Sept, 18:40 at PNC Park. Our prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates is St. Louis Cardinals to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project St. Louis Cardinals 5.4 and Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2. Our best bet is Pirates +2.5 at -245.

Pittsburgh Pirates form

Pittsburgh Pirates have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 runs scored and 74 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

St. Louis Cardinals form

St. Louis Cardinals have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 108 runs scored and 127 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Pittsburgh Pirates won 4, St. Louis Cardinals won 1. Last time out it finished St. Louis Cardinals 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.

Our call

We expect St. Louis Cardinals to score about 5.4 runs and Pittsburgh Pirates about 5.2. That points to St. Louis Cardinals to win. Our safest bet is Pirates +2.5 at -245.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PiratesCardinals
Games played2020
Wins117
Losses913
Runs scored68108
Runs conceded74127
Scored per game3.45.4
Conceded per game3.76.3
Home record4W 2L3W 5L
Away record7W 7L4W 8L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Pirates spreadCoversFair
Pirates -1.534%+196
Pirates -0.543%+134
Pirates +0.552%-109
Pirates +1.562%-160
Pirates +2.570%-237
Total runsOverUnder
8.569%31%
9.560%40%
10.551%49%
11.542%58%
12.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Pirates +3.5 wins if Pirates win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

Our prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates is St. Louis Cardinals to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project St. Louis Cardinals 5.4 and Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2. Our best bet is Pirates +2.5 at -245.

What is the projected score for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

We project St. Louis Cardinals 5.4 and Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2, about 10.6 runs in total.

How are Pittsburgh Pirates playing?

Pittsburgh Pirates have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 runs scored and 74 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are St. Louis Cardinals playing?

St. Louis Cardinals have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 108 runs scored and 127 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals last met?

It ended St. Louis Cardinals 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 5. In the last 5 meetings Pittsburgh Pirates won 4 and St. Louis Cardinals won 1.

What is the best bet for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

Pirates +2.5 at -245, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pirates against Cardinals. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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