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Predictions › United Kingdom › St Mirren vs Dundee
Scottish PremiershipSat 24 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

St Mirren vs Dundee prediction

The SMISA Stadium

St MirrenHome
1.00 : 1.20
expected goals
DundeeAway
30%St Mirren
31%Draw
40%Dundee
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for St Mirren vs Dundee is Dundee to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Dundee to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
St Mirren 1.0, Dundee 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives St Mirren 30%, the draw 31% and Dundee 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    St Mirren took 3 points from their last 5 games and Dundee took 7 from 5. Dundee come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    St Mirren won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Dundee won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    St Mirren score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Dundee score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of St Mirren games and 14 of Dundee games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, St Mirren won 1 and Dundee won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Dundee 1, St Mirren 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • St Mirrenrecent form-4%
  • Dundeerecent form-1%
St Mirren form L L L L WDundee form D W L D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

St Mirren vs Dundee: Dundee shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

St Mirren host Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 at The SMISA Stadium. Our prediction for St Mirren vs Dundee is Dundee to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

St Mirren form

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Dundee form

Dundee have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. St Mirren won 1, Dundee won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Dundee 1, St Mirren 0.

Our call

We expect St Mirren to score about 1.0 goals and Dundee about 1.2. That points to Dundee to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

St MirrenDundee
Games played2020
Wins69
Draws34
Losses117
Goals scored1732
Goals conceded3229
Scored per game0.81.6
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record2W 2D 6L6W 3D 2L
Away record4W 1D 5L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored30%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%8/15
Over 2.5 goals38%13/8
Over 3.5 goals18%9/2
Both teams to score45%6/5
St Mirren or Draw60%4/6
Dundee or Draw70%4/9
St Mirren to win and Over 2.514%6/1
Dundee to win and Over 2.519%4/1
St Mirren clean sheet30%9/4
Dundee clean sheet37%7/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
0-112.5%
0-011.9%
1-010.3%
1-28.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win St Mirren vs Dundee?

Our prediction for St Mirren vs Dundee is Dundee to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for St Mirren vs Dundee?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect St Mirren to score 1.0 goals and Dundee 1.2.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Dundee?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of St Mirren last 20 games and 13 of Dundee last 20.

How are St Mirren playing?

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Dundee playing?

Dundee have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when St Mirren and Dundee last met?

It ended Dundee 1, St Mirren 0. In the last 4 meetings St Mirren won 1 and Dundee won 2.

What is the best bet for St Mirren vs Dundee?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in St Mirren against Dundee. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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