EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Germany › St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
2. BundesligaSun 1 Nov, 12:30 Germany time

St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction

Millerntor-Stadion

St. PauliHome
1.38 : 1.18
expected goals
1. FC NürnbergAway
41%St. Pauli
28%Draw
31%1. FC Nürnberg
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is St. Pauli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
St. Pauli to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
St. Pauli 1.4, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives St. Pauli 41%, the draw 28% and 1. FC Nürnberg 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    St. Pauli took 9 points from their last 5 games and 1. FC Nürnberg took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    St. Pauli won 3 of their last 11 games at home. 1. FC Nürnberg won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    St. Pauli score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.5. 1. FC Nürnberg score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of St. Pauli games and 11 of 1. FC Nürnberg games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • St. Paulirecent form+3%
  • 1. FC Nürnbergrecent form+3%
St. Pauli form D W D W D1. FC Nürnberg form D D W W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: St. Pauli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 1 Nov, 12:30 at Millerntor-Stadion. Our prediction for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is St. Pauli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

St. Pauli form

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

1. FC Nürnberg form

1. FC Nürnberg have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect St. Pauli to score about 1.4 goals and 1. FC Nürnberg about 1.2. That points to St. Pauli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

St. Pauli1. FC Nürnberg
Games played2020
Wins49
Draws88
Losses83
Goals scored2039
Goals conceded3025
Scored per game1.01.9
Conceded per game1.51.3
Home record3W 3D 5L6W 1D 2L
Away record1W 5D 3L3W 7D 1L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.12
Over 3.5 goals25%3.93
Both teams to score53%1.90
St. Pauli or Draw69%1.45
1. FC Nürnberg or Draw59%1.69
St. Pauli to win and Over 2.524%4.25
1. FC Nürnberg to win and Over 2.517%5.74
St. Pauli clean sheet31%3.24
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet25%3.98

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-010.0%
2-18.7%
0-08.5%
0-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?

Our prediction for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is St. Pauli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect St. Pauli to score 1.4 goals and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.2.

Will both teams score in St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of St. Pauli last 20 games and 13 of 1. FC Nürnberg last 20.

How are St. Pauli playing?

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are 1. FC Nürnberg playing?

1. FC Nürnberg have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in St. Pauli against 1. FC Nürnberg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.