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Predictions › Germany › St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
2. BundesligaSun 11 Oct, 11:30 Germany time

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC prediction

Millerntor-Stadion

St. PauliHome
2.01 : 1.25
expected goals
Karlsruher SCAway
55%St. Pauli
23%Draw
23%Karlsruher
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC is St. Pauli to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
St. Pauli to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
St. Pauli 2.0, Karlsruher SC 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

St. Pauli to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives St. Pauli 55%, the draw 23% and Karlsruher SC 23%. The bookmakers agree and make St. Pauli the favourite at 1.67.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    St. Pauli took 6 points from their last 5 games and Karlsruher SC took 2 from 5. St. Pauli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    St. Pauli won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Karlsruher SC won 1 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    St. Pauli score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Karlsruher SC score 1.5 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of St. Pauli games and 16 of Karlsruher SC games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • St. Paulirecent form-1%
  • Karlsruherrecent form-3%
St. Pauli form D W D L LKarlsruher form L L D L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: St. Pauli are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

St. Pauli host Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 11 Oct, 11:30 at Millerntor-Stadion. Our prediction for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC is St. Pauli to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

St. Pauli form

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Karlsruher SC form

Karlsruher SC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect St. Pauli to score about 2.0 goals and Karlsruher SC about 1.3. That points to St. Pauli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is St. Pauli to win and Over 2.5 at 2.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

St. PauliKarlsruher
Games played2020
Wins46
Draws75
Losses99
Goals scored1930
Goals conceded3440
Scored per game0.91.5
Conceded per game1.72.0
Home record3W 3D 5L5W 2D 5L
Away record1W 4D 4L1W 3D 4L
Clean sheets15%5%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
St. Pauli to win51%1.951.67-14.4%
A Draw22%4.494.20-6.5%
Karlsruher SC to win22%4.464.20-5.9%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.442.05-15.8%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.891.67-11.6%
St. Pauli -0.553%1.891.61-15.2%
Karlsruher SC +0.541%2.422.10-13.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.58
Over 3.5 goals41%2.43
Both teams to score62%1.60
St. Pauli or Draw77%1.30
Karlsruher SC or Draw45%2.20
St. Pauli to win and Over 2.540%2.53
Karlsruher SC to win and Over 2.516%6.41
St. Pauli clean sheet29%3.48
Karlsruher SC clean sheet13%7.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.2%
2-19.7%
2-07.8%
1-07.1%
3-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Our prediction for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC is St. Pauli to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect St. Pauli to score 2.0 goals and Karlsruher SC 1.3.

Will both teams score in St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of St. Pauli last 20 games and 14 of Karlsruher SC last 20.

How are St. Pauli playing?

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Karlsruher SC playing?

Karlsruher SC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in St. Pauli against Karlsruher. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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