Predictions › France › Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre

Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct, 15:15 France time

Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre prediction

Roazhon Park

Stade RennaisHome

2.29 : 1.08

expected goals

AJ AuxerreAway

64%Rennes

20%Draw

16%Auxerre

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre is Stade Rennais to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Stade Rennais to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Stade Rennais 2.3, AJ Auxerre 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Stade Rennais to win and Over 2.5

45% chanceFair price 2.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Stade Rennais 64%, the draw 20% and AJ Auxerre 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Stade Rennais the favourite at 1.44.
2
Recent form
Stade Rennais took 10 points from their last 5 games and AJ Auxerre took 6 from 5. Stade Rennais come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Stade Rennais won 7 of their last 10 games at home. AJ Auxerre won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Stade Rennais score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. AJ Auxerre score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Stade Rennais games and 12 of AJ Auxerre games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Stade Rennais won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended AJ Auxerre 0, Stade Rennais 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Rennesrecent form+3%
Auxerrerecent form-1%

Rennes form L D W W WAuxerre form W W L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre: Stade Rennais are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Stade Rennais host AJ Auxerre in the Ligue 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 15:15 at Roazhon Park. Our prediction for Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre is Stade Rennais to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Stade Rennais form

Stade Rennais have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Stade Rennais won 1, AJ Auxerre won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AJ Auxerre 0, Stade Rennais 3.

Our call

We expect Stade Rennais to score about 2.3 goals and AJ Auxerre about 1.1. That points to Stade Rennais to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Stade Rennais to win and Over 2.5 at 2.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rennes	Auxerre
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	7
Draws	3	7
Losses	5	6
Goals scored	37	27
Goals conceded	28	27
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	7W 2D 1L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	5W 1D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Stade Rennais to win	63%	1.59	1.44	-10.0%
A Draw	20%	5.07	4.80	-5.3%
AJ Auxerre to win	16%	6.18	6.00	-2.9%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.50	2.20	-12.0%
Under 3.5 goals	54%	1.85	1.61	-13.1%
Stade Rennais -1.5	41%	2.44	2.05	-15.9%
AJ Auxerre +1.5	53%	1.88	1.65	-12.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	65%	1.53
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.30
Both teams to score	60%	1.67
Stade Rennais or Draw	84%	1.19
AJ Auxerre or Draw	36%	2.77
Stade Rennais to win and Over 2.5	48%	2.10
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.13
Stade Rennais clean sheet	34%	2.96
AJ Auxerre clean sheet	10%	9.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.7%

1-19.0%

2-09.0%

3-17.4%

1-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre?

Our prediction for Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre is Stade Rennais to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Stade Rennais to score 2.3 goals and AJ Auxerre 1.1.

Will both teams score in Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Stade Rennais last 20 games and 11 of AJ Auxerre last 20.

How are Stade Rennais playing?

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

What happened when Stade Rennais and AJ Auxerre last met?

It ended AJ Auxerre 0, Stade Rennais 3. In the last 2 meetings Stade Rennais won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0.

What is the best bet for Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rennes against Auxerre. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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