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Predictions › United Kingdom › Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
League OneSat 24 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons prediction

Lamex Stadium

StevenageHome
1.48 : 1.01
expected goals
Milton Keynes DonsAway
47%Stevenage
28%Draw
25%MK Dons
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons is Stevenage to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Stevenage to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Stevenage 1.5, Milton Keynes Dons 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Stevenage 47%, the draw 28% and Milton Keynes Dons 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Stevenage took 10 points from their last 5 games and Milton Keynes Dons took 3 from 5. Stevenage come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Stevenage won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Milton Keynes Dons won 1 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Stevenage score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Milton Keynes Dons score 1.4 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Stevenage games and 7 of Milton Keynes Dons games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Stevenagerecent form+3%
  • MK Donsrecent form+3%
Stevenage form D W W L WMK Dons form D W W D DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons: Stevenage are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Stevenage host Milton Keynes Dons in the League One on Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 at Lamex Stadium. Our prediction for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons is Stevenage to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Stevenage form

Stevenage have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 12 games, with 17 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Stevenage to score about 1.5 goals and Milton Keynes Dons about 1.0. That points to Stevenage to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

StevenageMK Dons
Games played2012
Wins82
Draws67
Losses63
Goals scored2217
Goals conceded2323
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.11.9
Home record5W 2D 3L1W 4D 1L
Away record3W 4D 3L1W 3D 2L
Clean sheets35%17%
Both teams scored45%83%
Over 2.5 goals40%58%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%2/5
Over 2.5 goals45%6/5
Over 3.5 goals24%10/3
Both teams to score50%Evens
Stevenage or Draw75%1/3
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw53%10/11
Stevenage to win and Over 2.527%11/4
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.513%13/2
Stevenage clean sheet36%7/4
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet23%10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-011.5%
2-19.2%
2-09.1%
0-09.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Our prediction for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons is Stevenage to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Stevenage to score 1.5 goals and Milton Keynes Dons 1.0.

Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Stevenage last 20 games and 10 of Milton Keynes Dons last 12.

How are Stevenage playing?

Stevenage have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 12 games, with 17 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stevenage against MK Dons. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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