Predictions › United Kingdom › Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle

League OneTue 20 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle prediction

Lamex Stadium

StevenageHome

1.02 : 1.30

expected goals

Plymouth ArgyleAway

28%Stevenage

29%Draw

42%Plymouth

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.0, Plymouth Argyle 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Stevenage 28%, the draw 29% and Plymouth Argyle 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Stevenage took 10 points from their last 5 games and Plymouth Argyle took 12 from 5. Plymouth Argyle come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Stevenage won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Plymouth Argyle won 6 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Stevenage score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Plymouth Argyle score 2.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Stevenage games and 13 of Plymouth Argyle games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Stevenage won 0 and Plymouth Argyle won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Plymouth Argyle 1, Stevenage 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Stevenagerecent form+3%
Plymouthrecent form+3%
Stevenagerest between games-5%
Plymouthrest between games-5%

Stevenage form D W W L WPlymouth form D W W L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle: Plymouth Argyle shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Stevenage host Plymouth Argyle in the League One on Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 at Lamex Stadium. Our prediction for Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Stevenage form

Stevenage have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Plymouth Argyle form

Plymouth Argyle have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Stevenage won 0, Plymouth Argyle won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Plymouth Argyle 1, Stevenage 0.

Our call

We expect Stevenage to score about 1.0 goals and Plymouth Argyle about 1.3. That points to Plymouth Argyle to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Stevenage	Plymouth
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	12
Draws	6	3
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	22	40
Goals conceded	23	26
Scored per game	1.1	2.0
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	5W 2D 3L	6W 1D 4L
Away record	3W 4D 3L	6W 2D 1L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	45%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	4/9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	7/5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4/1
Both teams to score	47%	11/10
Stevenage or Draw	58%	8/11
Plymouth Argyle or Draw	72%	2/5
Stevenage to win and Over 2.5	14%	6/1
Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Stevenage clean sheet	27%	11/4
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet	36%	7/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

0-112.0%

0-010.6%

1-09.2%

1-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle?

Our prediction for Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Stevenage to score 1.0 goals and Plymouth Argyle 1.3.

Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Stevenage last 20 games and 13 of Plymouth Argyle last 20.

How are Stevenage playing?

How are Plymouth Argyle playing?

What happened when Stevenage and Plymouth Argyle last met?

It ended Plymouth Argyle 1, Stevenage 0. In the last 2 meetings Stevenage won 0 and Plymouth Argyle won 1.

What is the best bet for Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle?

Under 3.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stevenage against Plymouth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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