Predictions › United Kingdom › Stoke City vs Birmingham City

ChampionshipSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Stoke City vs Birmingham City prediction

bet365 Stadium

Stoke CityHome

1.29 : 1.30

expected goals

Birmingham CityAway

36%Stoke

28%Draw

36%Birmingham

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction: Birmingham City to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.3, Birmingham City 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Stoke City to win

35% chancePrice 15/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Stoke City 36%, the draw 28% and Birmingham City 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Birmingham City the favourite at 7/5.
2
Recent form
Stoke City took 13 points from their last 5 games and Birmingham City took 12 from 5. Stoke City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Stoke City won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Birmingham City won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Stoke City score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Birmingham City score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Stoke City games and 14 of Birmingham City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Stoke City won 1 and Birmingham City won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Birmingham City 1, Stoke City 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Stokerecent form+6%
Birminghamrecent form+4%

Stoke form W W W D WBirmingham form W W W L WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Stoke City vs Birmingham City: Birmingham City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Stoke City host Birmingham City in the Championship on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at bet365 Stadium. Our prediction for Stoke City vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Birmingham City form

Birmingham City have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Stoke City won 1, Birmingham City won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Birmingham City 1, Stoke City 1.

Our call

We expect Stoke City to score about 1.3 goals and Birmingham City about 1.3. That points to Birmingham City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Stoke City to win at 15/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Stoke	Birmingham
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	11
Draws	3	6
Losses	7	3
Goals scored	29	35
Goals conceded	27	23
Scored per game	1.4	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	5W 2D 4L	6W 4D 1L
Away record	5W 1D 3L	5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Stoke City to win	35%	15/8	15/8	-0.0%
A Draw	28%	13/5	12/5	-7.9%
Birmingham City to win	35%	9/5	7/5	-15.1%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5	5/6	-15.1%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	11/10	5/6	-12.6%
Stoke City +0.5	56%	4/5	8/15	-15.1%
Birmingham City -0.5	38%	13/8	5/4	-14.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	4/11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	11/10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	11/4
Both teams to score	53%	10/11
Stoke City or Draw	64%	4/7
Birmingham City or Draw	64%	4/7
Stoke City to win and Over 2.5	21%	4/1
Birmingham City to win and Over 2.5	21%	4/1
Stoke City clean sheet	27%	13/5
Birmingham City clean sheet	28%	13/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

0-19.0%

1-09.0%

0-08.3%

1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Stoke City vs Birmingham City?

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Stoke City vs Birmingham City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Stoke City to score 1.3 goals and Birmingham City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Stoke City last 20 games and 13 of Birmingham City last 20.

How are Stoke City playing?

How are Birmingham City playing?

What happened when Stoke City and Birmingham City last met?

It ended Birmingham City 1, Stoke City 1. In the last 2 meetings Stoke City won 1 and Birmingham City won 0.

What is the best bet for Stoke City vs Birmingham City?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stoke against Birmingham. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.