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Predictions › United Kingdom › Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
ChampionshipTue 13 Oct, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction

bet365 Stadium

Stoke CityHome
1.56 : 1.31
expected goals
MiddlesbroughAway
42%Stoke
26%Draw
31%Boro
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough is Stoke City to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Stoke City to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Stoke City 1.6, Middlesbrough 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Stoke City to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Stoke City 42%, the draw 26% and Middlesbrough 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Stoke City took 13 points from their last 5 games and Middlesbrough took 8 from 5. Stoke City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Stoke City won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Middlesbrough won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Stoke City score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Middlesbrough score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Stoke City games and 13 of Middlesbrough games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Stoke City won 0 and Middlesbrough won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Stoke City 1, Middlesbrough 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Stokerecent form+6%
  • Bororecent form+1%
Stoke form W W D W WBoro form D D W L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: Stoke City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Stoke City host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 at bet365 Stadium. Our prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough is Stoke City to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Stoke City won 0, Middlesbrough won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Stoke City 1, Middlesbrough 2.

Our call

We expect Stoke City to score about 1.6 goals and Middlesbrough about 1.3. That points to Stoke City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Stoke City to win and Over 2.5 at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

StokeBoro
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws47
Losses95
Goals scored2833
Goals conceded3327
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record6W 3D 3L6W 2D 1L
Away record1W 1D 6L2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%2/7
Over 2.5 goals55%5/6
Over 3.5 goals32%85/40
Both teams to score58%8/11
Stoke City or Draw69%4/9
Middlesbrough or Draw58%8/11
Stoke City to win and Over 2.527%13/5
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Stoke City clean sheet27%11/4
Middlesbrough clean sheet21%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.0%
1-08.1%
1-27.6%
2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough is Stoke City to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Stoke City to score 1.6 goals and Middlesbrough 1.3.

Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Stoke City last 20 games and 13 of Middlesbrough last 20.

How are Stoke City playing?

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Middlesbrough playing?

Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Stoke City and Middlesbrough last met?

It ended Stoke City 1, Middlesbrough 2. In the last 2 meetings Stoke City won 0 and Middlesbrough won 1.

What is the best bet for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stoke against Boro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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