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Predictions › Italy › Sudtirol vs Cesena
Serie BSat 31 Oct, 14:00 Italy time

Sudtirol vs Cesena prediction

Stadio Druso

SudtirolHome
1.03 : 0.63
expected goals
CesenaAway
44%Sudtirol
35%Draw
21%Cesena
Eagle safe pickSudtirol or Draw
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cesena is Sudtirol to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction
Sudtirol to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Sudtirol 1.0, Cesena 0.6
Best bet
Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score
31%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sudtirol or Draw
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
20% chanceFair price 5.081 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sudtirol 44%, the draw 35% and Cesena 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sudtirol took 8 points from their last 5 games and Cesena took 4 from 5. Sudtirol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sudtirol won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Cesena won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sudtirol score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cesena score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Sudtirol games and 8 of Cesena games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sudtirol won 0 and Cesena won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cesena 1, Sudtirol 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Sudtirol or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cesenarecent form-1%
Sudtirol form D D W L DCesena form D L D D DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sudtirol vs Cesena: Sudtirol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sudtirol host Cesena in the Serie B on Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 at Stadio Druso. Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cesena is Sudtirol to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28.

Sudtirol form

Sudtirol have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Cesena form

Cesena have 2 wins, 11 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sudtirol won 0, Cesena won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cesena 1, Sudtirol 1.

Our call

We expect Sudtirol to score about 1.0 goals and Cesena about 0.6. That points to Sudtirol to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 5.08.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SudtirolCesena
Games played2020
Wins42
Draws911
Losses77
Goals scored2021
Goals conceded2631
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record2W 6D 3L1W 7D 3L
Away record2W 3D 4L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals35%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals50%1.99
Over 2.5 goals23%4.29
Over 3.5 goals9%11.40
Both teams to score31%3.24
Sudtirol or Draw79%1.27
Cesena or Draw56%1.78
Sudtirol to win and Over 2.515%6.74
Cesena to win and Over 2.56%15.86
Sudtirol clean sheet53%1.88
Cesena clean sheet36%2.81

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-019.7%
1-018.8%
1-113.1%
0-111.2%
2-010.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sudtirol vs Cesena?

Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cesena is Sudtirol to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Sudtirol vs Cesena?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Sudtirol to score 1.0 goals and Cesena 0.6.

Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cesena?

Both teams to score has a 31% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Sudtirol last 20 games and 13 of Cesena last 20.

How are Sudtirol playing?

Sudtirol have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Cesena playing?

Cesena have 2 wins, 11 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Sudtirol and Cesena last met?

It ended Cesena 1, Sudtirol 1. In the last 2 meetings Sudtirol won 0 and Cesena won 1.

What is the best bet for Sudtirol vs Cesena?

Sudtirol or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sudtirol against Cesena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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