Predictions › Italy › Sudtirol vs Cremonese

Serie BSat 21 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Sudtirol vs Cremonese prediction

Stadio Druso

SudtirolHome

1.01 : 1.28

expected goals

CremoneseAway

28%Sudtirol

30%Draw

42%Cremonese

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Cremonese to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.0, Cremonese 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.211 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sudtirol 28%, the draw 30% and Cremonese 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Cremonese the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Sudtirol took 3 points from their last 5 games and Cremonese took 9 from 5. Cremonese come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sudtirol won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Cremonese won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Sudtirol score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cremonese score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Sudtirol games and 10 of Cremonese games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sudtirolrecent form-3%
Cremoneserecent form+1%

Sudtirol form D D L D LCremonese form W W W L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sudtirol vs Cremonese: Cremonese shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sudtirol host Cremonese in the Serie B on Sat 21 Nov, 14:00 at Stadio Druso. Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Sudtirol form

Sudtirol have 3 wins, 11 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Cremonese form

Cremonese have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sudtirol to score about 1.0 goals and Cremonese about 1.3. That points to Cremonese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.21.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sudtirol	Cremonese
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	7
Draws	11	4
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	18	23
Goals conceded	28	25
Scored per game	0.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	2W 7D 2L	3W 2D 5L
Away record	1W 4D 4L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Both teams scored	55%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sudtirol to win	28%	3.57	3.25	-8.9%
A Draw	29%	3.42	3.15	-7.9%
Cremonese to win	40%	2.47	2.20	-11.0%
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.44	2.10	-13.8%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.92	1.63	-15.5%
Sudtirol +0.5	52%	1.93	1.61	-16.8%
Cremonese -0.5	41%	2.42	2.10	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.49
Over 3.5 goals	20%	5.01
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Sudtirol or Draw	58%	1.72
Cremonese or Draw	71%	1.40
Sudtirol to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.18
Cremonese to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.67
Sudtirol clean sheet	28%	3.60
Cremonese clean sheet	36%	2.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

0-112.2%

0-010.9%

1-09.4%

1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

Our prediction for Sudtirol vs Cremonese is Cremonese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Sudtirol to score 1.0 goals and Cremonese 1.3.

Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Sudtirol last 20 games and 7 of Cremonese last 20.

How are Sudtirol playing?

How are Cremonese playing?

What is the best bet for Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sudtirol against Cremonese. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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