Predictions › Germany › SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg

BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction

URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

SV ElversbergHome

1.60 : 1.56

expected goals

FC AugsburgAway

38%Elversberg

25%Draw

37%Augsburg

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg is SV Elversberg to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: SV Elversberg to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 1.6, FC Augsburg 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

SV Elversberg to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives SV Elversberg 38%, the draw 25% and FC Augsburg 37%. The bookmakers agree and make SV Elversberg the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
SV Elversberg took 10 points from their last 5 games and FC Augsburg took 7 from 5. SV Elversberg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
SV Elversberg won 7 of their last 11 games at home. FC Augsburg won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
SV Elversberg score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. FC Augsburg score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of SV Elversberg games and 14 of FC Augsburg games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Elversbergrecent form+3%
Augsburgrecent form+3%

Elversberg form D L W W WAugsburg form L D W W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg: SV Elversberg shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SV Elversberg host FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg is SV Elversberg to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

SV Elversberg form

SV Elversberg have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

FC Augsburg form

FC Augsburg have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect SV Elversberg to score about 1.6 goals and FC Augsburg about 1.6. That points to SV Elversberg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is SV Elversberg to win and Over 2.5 at 3.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Elversberg	Augsburg
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	5	6
Goals scored	39	36
Goals conceded	28	32
Scored per game	1.9	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	7W 1D 3L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	3W 4D 2L	5W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
SV Elversberg to win	36%	2.75	2.35	-14.7%
A Draw	25%	4.07	3.60	-11.5%
FC Augsburg to win	35%	2.86	2.45	-14.4%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.48	2.05	-17.3%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.69	-10.5%
SV Elversberg -0.5	37%	2.69	2.25	-16.3%
FC Augsburg +0.5	57%	1.76	1.51	-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.64
Over 3.5 goals	39%	2.58
Both teams to score	64%	1.57
SV Elversberg or Draw	63%	1.58
FC Augsburg or Draw	62%	1.63
SV Elversberg to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.73
FC Augsburg to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.93
SV Elversberg clean sheet	21%	4.74
FC Augsburg clean sheet	20%	4.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

2-26.6%

1-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg is SV Elversberg to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect SV Elversberg to score 1.6 goals and FC Augsburg 1.6.

Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of SV Elversberg last 20 games and 14 of FC Augsburg last 20.

How are SV Elversberg playing?

How are FC Augsburg playing?

What is the best bet for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elversberg against Augsburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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