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Predictions › Germany › SV Elversberg vs Mainz
BundesligaFri 30 Oct, 19:30 Germany time

SV Elversberg vs Mainz prediction

URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

SV ElversbergHome
1.32 : 1.72
expected goals
MainzAway
29%Elversberg
25%Draw
46%Mainz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Mainz to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
SV Elversberg 1.3, Mainz 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mainz to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SV Elversberg 29%, the draw 25% and Mainz 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Mainz the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SV Elversberg took 7 points from their last 5 games and Mainz took 9 from 5. Mainz come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SV Elversberg won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Mainz won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    SV Elversberg score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Mainz score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of SV Elversberg games and 11 of Mainz games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Elversbergrecent form-1%
Elversberg form D L D L WMainz form D L W L WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

SV Elversberg vs Mainz: Mainz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SV Elversberg host Mainz in the Bundesliga on Fri 30 Oct, 19:30 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

SV Elversberg form

SV Elversberg have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Mainz form

Mainz have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect SV Elversberg to score about 1.3 goals and Mainz about 1.7. That points to Mainz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Mainz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ElversbergMainz
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws44
Losses66
Goals scored3935
Goals conceded3028
Scored per game1.91.8
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record8W 0D 3L3W 2D 5L
Away record2W 4D 3L7W 2D 1L
Clean sheets20%40%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
SV Elversberg to win28%3.623.15-13.1%
A Draw24%4.163.55-14.8%
Mainz to win46%2.182.00-8.3%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.422.20-9.0%
Under 3.5 goals54%1.841.59-13.8%
SV Elversberg +0.550%2.001.71-14.4%
Mainz -0.546%2.161.91-11.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.71
Over 3.5 goals36%2.76
Both teams to score61%1.64
SV Elversberg or Draw54%1.87
Mainz or Draw71%1.40
SV Elversberg to win and Over 2.519%5.28
Mainz to win and Over 2.532%3.15
SV Elversberg clean sheet18%5.61
Mainz clean sheet27%3.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
1-29.4%
0-17.6%
2-17.1%
0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win SV Elversberg vs Mainz?

Our prediction for SV Elversberg vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for SV Elversberg vs Mainz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect SV Elversberg to score 1.3 goals and Mainz 1.7.

Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Mainz?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of SV Elversberg last 20 games and 10 of Mainz last 20.

How are SV Elversberg playing?

SV Elversberg have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Mainz playing?

Mainz have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for SV Elversberg vs Mainz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elversberg against Mainz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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