Predictions › United Kingdom › Swansea City vs Norwich City

ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Swansea City vs Norwich City prediction

Swansea.com Stadium

Swansea CityHome

1.47 : 1.33

expected goals

Norwich CityAway

40%Swansea

27%Draw

33%Norwich City

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Swansea City vs Norwich City is Swansea City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Swansea City to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Swansea City 1.5, Norwich City 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Swansea City 40%, the draw 27% and Norwich City 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Swansea City the favourite at 6/4.
2
Recent form
Swansea City took 10 points from their last 5 games and Norwich City took 6 from 5. Swansea City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Swansea City won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Norwich City won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Swansea City score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Norwich City score 1.7 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Swansea City games and 14 of Norwich City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Swansea City won 1 and Norwich City won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Norwich City 1, Swansea City 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Swansearecent form+3%
Norwich Cityrecent form-1%

Swansea form W W L D WNorwich City form L L L W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Swansea City vs Norwich City: Swansea City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Swansea City host Norwich City in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at Swansea.com Stadium. Our prediction for Swansea City vs Norwich City is Swansea City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Swansea City form

Swansea City have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Norwich City form

Norwich City have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Swansea City won 1, Norwich City won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Norwich City 1, Swansea City 1.

Our call

We expect Swansea City to score about 1.5 goals and Norwich City about 1.3. That points to Swansea City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Swansea	Norwich City
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	9
Draws	5	2
Losses	5	9
Goals scored	30	34
Goals conceded	23	35
Scored per game	1.5	1.7
Conceded per game	1.1	1.8
Home record	4W 3D 3L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	6W 2D 2L	5W 0D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	5%
Both teams scored	55%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Swansea City to win	37%	13/8	6/4	-5.1%
A Draw	26%	11/4	12/5	-11.9%
Norwich City to win	32%	85/40	8/5	-17.0%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	Evens	8/11	-13.7%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	5/4	Evens	-13.2%
Swansea City -0.5	36%	7/4	11/8	-14.3%
Norwich City +0.5	58%	8/11	1/2	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	31%	9/4
Both teams to score	57%	8/11
Swansea City or Draw	67%	1/2
Norwich City or Draw	60%	4/6
Swansea City to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Norwich City to win and Over 2.5	21%	4/1
Swansea City clean sheet	27%	11/4
Norwich City clean sheet	23%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%

2-18.7%

1-08.2%

1-27.9%

0-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Swansea City vs Norwich City?

Our prediction for Swansea City vs Norwich City is Swansea City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Swansea City vs Norwich City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Swansea City to score 1.5 goals and Norwich City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Swansea City vs Norwich City?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Swansea City last 20 games and 14 of Norwich City last 20.

How are Swansea City playing?

How are Norwich City playing?

What happened when Swansea City and Norwich City last met?

It ended Norwich City 1, Swansea City 1. In the last 2 meetings Swansea City won 1 and Norwich City won 0.

What is the best bet for Swansea City vs Norwich City?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Swansea against Norwich City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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