Predictions › Australia › Sydney FC vs Adelaide United

A-LeagueSun 25 Oct, 04:00 Australia time

Sydney FC vs Adelaide United prediction

Allianz Stadium

Sydney FCHome

1.31 : 1.27

expected goals

Adelaide UnitedAway

37%Sydney FC

28%Draw

35%Adelaide Utd

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sydney FC vs Adelaide United is Sydney FC to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Sydney FC to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.3, Adelaide United 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

74% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sydney FC 37%, the draw 28% and Adelaide United 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Sydney FC took 6 points from their last 5 games and Adelaide United took 8 from 5. Adelaide United come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sydney FC won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Adelaide United won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Sydney FC score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Adelaide United score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Sydney FC games and 12 of Adelaide United games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sydney FC won 0 and Adelaide United won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sydney FC 1, Adelaide United 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sydney FCrecent form+1%
Sydney FCrest between games-3%
Adelaide Utdrest between games-3%

Sydney FC form L W D W DAdelaide Utd form W L L D WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sydney FC vs Adelaide United: Sydney FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sydney FC host Adelaide United in the A-League on Sun 25 Oct, 04:00 at Allianz Stadium. Our prediction for Sydney FC vs Adelaide United is Sydney FC to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Sydney FC form

Sydney FC have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Adelaide United form

Adelaide United have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sydney FC won 0, Adelaide United won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sydney FC 1, Adelaide United 2.

Our call

We expect Sydney FC to score about 1.3 goals and Adelaide United about 1.3. That points to Sydney FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sydney FC	Adelaide Utd
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	9
Draws	7	8
Losses	7	3
Goals scored	21	35
Goals conceded	21	29
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.4
Home record	2W 5D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	4W 2D 3L	5W 5D 0L
Clean sheets	35%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.85
Both teams to score	53%	1.88
Sydney FC or Draw	65%	1.54
Adelaide United or Draw	63%	1.58
Sydney FC to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.72
Adelaide United to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.96
Sydney FC clean sheet	28%	3.57
Adelaide United clean sheet	27%	3.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

1-09.1%

0-18.9%

0-08.3%

2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?

Our prediction for Sydney FC vs Adelaide United is Sydney FC to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Sydney FC to score 1.3 goals and Adelaide United 1.3.

Will both teams score in Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Sydney FC last 20 games and 16 of Adelaide United last 20.

How are Sydney FC playing?

How are Adelaide United playing?

What happened when Sydney FC and Adelaide United last met?

It ended Sydney FC 1, Adelaide United 2. In the last 2 meetings Sydney FC won 0 and Adelaide United won 2.

What is the best bet for Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sydney FC against Adelaide Utd. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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